Hi everyone. Keith here with my third and final update on our re-review of Football Betting Alerts.
As you will remember month one in October saw a small gross profit that after deduction of Betfair commission and FBA subscription costs resulted in an overall loss of £16 when using £20 stakes so almost a break even month.
Month two was a bit of a disaster with a loss of £480 after Betfair commission and £539 after adding the subscriptions costs on.
So month three needed a serious improvement to stop this being added to the failed pile.
Did it succeed ?
Drum roll please…………………………………………………..
Well, NO, sadly it continued it’s slide with another losing month.
December is a funny month of course due to the Christmas period but then given the number of international breaks and the way TV dictates a lot of fixtures these days I’m not really sure what a normal month looks like any more.
As before all selections have been placed on the FBA web site in good time and have also been received by email, again in good time.
December Results
There have been no changes to the rules during December and that means during the month we had:
- 56 Professor’s Picks
- 42 of those selections qualified after passing the half time max odds and red card rules.
- 23 won with either a full stake or two half stakes placed.
- 9 won but only had a half stake placed as the match had a second half goal scored before the reduced odds bet was matched.
- 10 lost. All losing selections will have the full stake or two half stakes placed as the second reduced odds bet will always get matched.
This means that when using the advised £20 stake December showed:
- Gross Profit: £-137.00
- Net Profit after deduction of 5% commission : £-164.50
- Net Profit after deduction of 5% commission and subscription costs ( £59 per month ): £-223.50
The suggested bank size is 40 points so for the advised £20 stake that is £800. Therefore our bank has reduced after all costs by 27.94%
As in November given the number of selections and the win/loss ratio in December, along with the gross profit figure there wouldn’t have been a break even stake figure as there was a gross loss.
The official results posted to the FBA web site show a profit of £-120. This figure is a gross figure and doesn’t take into account any Betfair commission or subscription costs. Therefore there is a discrepancy of £17.00 between my figures and the official FBA figures.
This discrepancy seems to yet again be down to matches where the official results show either a full stake lay at half time or a half stake lay in the second half where my results say the half time odds where out side the limits for the match to be a selection or that the odds never dropped low enough in the second half for the second averaging bet to be matched. I find the results page very disappointing and there seems to be a lack of interest in providing accurate results. Apparently the results are posted by someone who doesn’t use Betfair for their betting which I find a little misleading given that the majority of subscriber will be using Betfair and not getting the same results as officially reported.
Total Results
So where does that leave us at the end of our three month review ?
Well not in a happy place for sure, overall figures come out at :
- 181 Professor’s Picks
- 143 of those selections qualified after passing the half time max odds and red card rules.
- 76 won with either a full stake or two half stakes placed.
- 33 won but only had a half stake placed as the match had a second half goal scored before the reduced odds bet was matched.
- 34 lost. All losing selections will have the full stake or two half stakes placed as the second reduced odds bet will always get matched.
This means that when using the advised £20 stake our total shows:
- Gross Profit: £-509.00
- Net Profit after deduction of 5% commission : £-601.50
- Net Profit after deduction of 5% commission and subscription costs ( £59 per month ): £-778.50
The suggested bank size is 40 points so for the advised £20 stake that is £800. Therefore our bank has reduced by 97.31% after all related costs have been added/deducted ( gross P/L, Betfair commission, System Subscription costs )
Click here for the full set of results.
If we take the view that the bank size should only be to cover the actual system betting part and not the subscription costs, so saying does the actual system work if it was free, then our “betting bank” has reduced by 75.19%.
A £600 net loss after commission, which equates to a 75% loss of bank, within three months at advised stakes puts this firmly in the failed category. The official results page still shows a profit since Feb 2017 of £1136 but given that that figure is not based on Betfair odds and take no commission into account etc I find it hard to have much confidence in it.
Summary
When I first started this review my intention was to review the Professors Picks along with the published picks from the included PAD tool. I was then advised that these published picks were not official and were only a suggested way to use the tool so that wasn’t included in our official figures as it’s an add-on in effect.
I still followed these suggested settings within the PAD tool just to see if it added any value and sadly it was actually worse than the professors picks with a loss of £971 at the suggested £20 stakes. You can play around with the settings to create your own system, something I did and managed a theoretical profit of £78 over the three months when using a target profit per selection of £10 from a bank that would need to be around £50 which is pretty good. The trouble is in reality I would have had to be available for every minute of every match that was selected ready to place bets unless some form or automation was used.
There is also another add-on which is a Trading Chat Room. Although there are people in it chatting about trades I find this a slightly weird add-on simply because Football Betting Alerts is a tipping service and so I would have thought the majority of subscribers are looking for someone to do the leg work and tell them what to bet on, not to be traders, but then that’s just my thoughts and maybe I’m wrong on that.
A quick word on the person/people running FBA as it’s been mentioned quite a lot in the comments section. I have had no problems at all with any of my communications with Ads. There have been occasions when replies were maybe a little slow, it does seem Ads likes his holidays, but not slow enough to warrant any sort of complaint and any problems or queries have been dealt with without fuss. I know some people have, rightly or wrongly, a grievance against Ads or other people at FBA but I can only report on my own personal experience which has been fine.
Conclusion
So in conclusion I’m afraid Football Betting Alerts is a fail. I’m sure plenty of work has and continues to go into the selection process but over our review period it was sadly a spectacular failure.
If you wish to check FBA out for yourself, you can do so here.
Update: 30th November 2017
Hi everyone. Keith here with my second months update on our re-review of Football Betting Alerts.
Month one in October saw a small gross profit that after deduction of Betfair commission and FBA subscription costs resulted in an overall loss of £16 when using £20 stakes so almost a break even month.
November saw yet another international break in the football calender and so the number of selections was once again reduced from what we would probably expect in a full month program.
All selections have been placed on the FBA web site in good time and have also been received by email, again in good time.
November Results
There have been no changes to the rules during November and that means during the month we had:
- 61 Professor’s Picks.
- 51 of those selections qualified after passing the half time max odds and red card rules.
- 24 won with either a full stake or two half stakes placed.
- 12 won but only had a half stake placed as the match had a second half goal scored before the reduced odds bet was matched.
- 15 lost. All losing selections will have the full stake or two half stakes placed as the second reduced odds bet will always get matched.
This means that when using the advised £20 stake November showed:
- Gross Profit: £-450.00
- Net Profit after deduction of 5% commission : £-480.00
- Net Profit after deduction of 5% commission and subscription costs (£59 per month): £-539.00
The suggested bank size is 40 points so for the advised £20 stake that is £800. Therefore our bank has reduced after costs by 67.00%
Given the number of selections and the win/loss ratio in November, along with the gross profit figure there wouldn’t have been a break even stake figure as there was a gross loss.
The official results posted to the FBA web site show a gross profit of £-310 so there is quite a discrepancy of £140 between my figures and the official FBA figures. The question is of course why?
Well it seems to be for a number of reasons.
Firstly there were two matches in November where the half time score was in the “Any Other Home Win” category with half time scores of 4 – 0 and 4 – 1. These selections could not be bet on using the Correct Score market. Both of these games could have had bets placed on them on the Over Goals markets, Over 4.5 goals and Over 5.5 goals respectively. As I am only collecting data for the Correct Score market I can’t say what the odds of these alternative markets were and have these down as NO BET selections on the attached results spreadsheet. These two matches would have increased the gross total by £40 had the alternative market been used as I assume the official results has done.
Secondly there was a match with a first half red card which according to the rules should therefore be a no bet selection but it is shown as a winning selection on the official results, presumably an oversight. Again this creates a £20 difference between the FBA gross figures and my own.
These two reasons would bring the difference between the official results and my own down by £60 to £80
Looking at all the results it would seem that the reason there is still a difference is down to two things. Some selections in the official results showing as qualifying selections when my data says the half time odds were too high so they should have been no bet selections and others where the second, lower odds, averaging bet shows as being matched in play but my data says the odds never got low enough for that to happen before another goal was scored, cancelling the bet.
A couple of selections showing £20 wins where I have them as no bet selections along with a few £20 wins where I have them as £10 wins would soon make up the difference in our two gross totals.
I have been told by FBA that the professor doesn’t live in a country where Betfair is allowed and so uses Smarkets and Bet365 so on that basis there could at times be a difference between what are official results and what can be achieved when using Betfair. Personally I feel the results page could be improved to give better detail to the reader for each selection but that is a decision for the vendor.
Total Results
So where does that leave us so far after two months use?
Well in total so far there have been :
- 125 Professor’s Picks.
- 101 of those selections qualified after passing the half time max odds and red card rules.
- 53 won with either a full stake or two half stakes placed.
- 24 won but only had a half stake placed as the match had a second half goal scored before the reduced odds bet was matched.
- 24 lost. All losing selections will have the full stake or two half stakes placed as the second reduced odds bet will always get matched.
This means that when using the advised £20 stake our total shows:
- Gross Profit: £-372.00
- Net Profit after deduction of 5% commission : £-437.00
- Net Profit after deduction of 5% commission and subscription costs (£59 per month): £-555.00
The suggested bank size is 40 points so for the advised £20 stake that is £800. Therefore our bank has reduced after costs by 69.38% after all related costs have been added/deducted (gross P/L, Betfair commission, System Subscription costs)
If we take the view that the bank size should only be to cover the actual system betting part and not the subscription costs, so saying does the actual system work if it was free, then our “betting bank” has reduced by 54.62%.
Either way this is quite worrying and requires a very good December to get things back on track.
I’ll be back in a month to see if that happened 🙂
In the meantime, you can find out more about Football Betting Alerts over here.
Update: 1st November 2017
Hi everyone, Keith here with my first months update on our re-review of Football Betting Alerts.
After an inconclusive, unfinished, review earlier this year it’s an attempt to get to the bottom of whether it’s something you should be looking at as part of your betting portfolio or one to leave alone.
First things first and a bit of a correction on the intro from last month. I stated that we would be looking at the figures for the official “Professor’s Picks” and the “PAD tool“. This is not actually going to be the case.
I was under the impression, wrongly, that the PAD tool had been used for some time and that the selections emailed out to subscribers from it were the official method of using it.
This isn’t the case with the tool only being used for a couple of months and the supplied selections from it just an example of how it can be set up.
The results from it are not included in the results on the FBA website so I think it’s best that we stick to what does make up those results which is now solely the Professor’s Picks.
So what’s the system about?
Once you have a subscription you get access to a number of different services.
These include the Professor’s Picks, the PAD tool (Prematch Analysis Data), Goalfinder (an in-play match analysis tool), Market Matcher and a trading chat room.
The Professor’s Picks are the only official selections with all the other bits being in effect free add-ons that you can either use or not.
This of course makes determining the value of the subscription hard to do as it would depend partly on which of the free add-ons you used and benefited from.
The official “Professor’s Picks” is a “lay the current score at half time” system using a very simple staking plan and rules and the suggested stake is £20 per selection giving a £70 liability.
This is what we will use for our review, but I will also be looking at just what stake is required to break even among other things.
System Rules
Well as mentioned the Official Picks of FBA is a lay the current score at half time system.
The rules state that if the current score at half time is trading at over 7.00* to lay then that is a no bet selection. If it is trading at between 4.60 and 7.00 inclusive, then we place a half stake lay at the available odds plus a second lay at reduced odds to give an average of 4.50.
Example: If we are using the suggested £20 stake and the half time odds are 5.40 we would place a £10 lay at 5.40 (liability £44) and also a second £10 lay at 3.60 (liability £26) giving us an average of 4.50 (liability £70). In some cases, this second bet will not be matched before a subsequent goal goes in and the bet is cancelled.
The only other rule is that any match with a red card before half time is a no bet selection.
That’s the rules, as simple as they can get really although time consuming as you have to be there at half time for each of the selections to check the odds.
Although I wouldn’t pass on the rules of some systems in a review, as they are what make the system, it’s actually the selections that make this service not the rules. It’s simply a tipping service with a staking plan in reality.
*Note: The maximum half time odds has recently been changed from 6.00 to 7.00 after analysing past data. Although some people may find any system that changes its rules a little concerning I am personally in full agreement with the change as I couldn’t see the point of it being at 6.00 in the first place.
There are times when rules are changed to hide something or to try an extend a failing system. There are also times when rules are changed to improve the system. For me this is an “improve the system” change.
The review results will use the rules that are in force at the time of the selections so this first month will have a combination of max odds 6.00, pre 17th Oct, and max odds 7.00, 17th Oct onwards.
Selections
The Professor’s Picks selections are posted to the FBA members web site and also emailed out generally a couple of days in advance of the fixtures.
The selections are not just UK based or even Euro based but can be from anywhere in the world.
This gives us a problem when placing bets manually in that selections could easily start before 6am and run all the way through until after midnight and only the most dedicated users will be sat there all that time.
I am not one of those so what I have done is set up a system that records the odds and liquidity of the correct score market for each selection every minute during the 2 hour period starting at the kick off time.
This data can then be used to determine the P/L of any selection that I’m not able to see live as I know exactly what the half time odds were and how they moved during the second half of the match.
Although it’s unlikely that anyone using FBA manually will be betting on all the selections due to the start times, and so not obtaining the same results, I think it’s important the whole list of selections is used to determine the systems performance.
Without the use of an automated bot everyone is likely to get different results depending on which matches they can physically bet on.
FBA do give instructions on how several third party bots can be set up to run the system and there is also a third party bot designed specifically for the Professor’s Picks.
Neither the bots or the set up instructions are being tested as part of this review.
FBA do stress that they have no affiliation with any of these bots including the one designed for the purpose and any problems when using them should be directed to the bot vendors although I’m sure they would be happy to assist if they can.
Results
During October we had 64 Professor’s Picks:
- 50 of those selections qualified after passing the half time max odds and red card rules.
- 29 won with either a full stake or two half stakes placed.
- 12 won but only had a half stake placed as the match had a second half goal scored before the reduced odds bet was matched.
- 9 lost. All losing selections will have the full stake or two half stakes placed as the second reduced odds bet will always get matched.
Click here for the full results.
This means that when using the advised £20 stake October showed:
- Gross Profit: £78.00
- Net Profit after deduction of 5% commission: £43.00
- Net Profit after deduction of 5% commission and subscription costs (£59 per month): £-16.00
The suggested bank size is 40 points so for the advised £20 stake that is £800. Therefore, our bank has reduced after costs by 2.00%
Given the number of selections and the win/loss ratio in October we would have had to place stakes of £27.97 to break even after all costs.
October started with an international break in the football calendar which means we only had 12 selections in the first two weeks followed by 52 selections in the following two and a bit weeks so the figures we got in October may not be completely indicative of a normal month but I wanted to include it as international breaks are part of the football year.
The official results posted to the FBA web site show a gross profit of £80 so when compared to my £78 that is well within the variance I would expect when using anything other than SP.
I’ll be back at the end of November with the next instalment.
In the meantime, you can find out more about Football Betting Alerts over here.
Keith’s Introduction: 2nd October 2017
Hi everyone. I’m Keith and some of you may know me as one half of the Acebots team behind Bethawk.
As Amy has a lot of reviews to catch up on, I’ve volunteered my services to help out where I can. She has asked me to take on a review which in the past has been quite volatile on these pages and hopefully bring some clarity to it. I would hope that being a system vendor myself will help me see any issues that arise from both a vendor and subscriber perspective.
The systems on offer from Football Betting Alerts seem to have changed a bit since the review earlier this year and will now contain the Professor’s Picks, which are lay the score at half time selections and the PAD (Pre Match Analysis) Tool which allows you to input certain criteria, again based on goals, and will output matches where your criteria fits. I will be running these systems from 1st October for what is at the moment a non fixed term.
One of the issues I see on the horizon is that of being available to place bets for all the selections so I will be recording the half time odds for each selection so that every selection made can be verified against the published results at FBA regardless of whether I was available to place bets on it. There is an optional bot for use with the system from a third party vendor but we do not have access to that for this review.
There is an international break in the football calender coming up so me may get off to a slow start but these periods are now part and parcel of football of course.
Once we have some results under our belt I’ll be back with an update of how things are going.
Lucy’s Original Introduction: 2nd March 2017
I have been hearing a lot lately about a new service called Football Betting Alerts.
It particularly interests me as the people behind it created Pre-Match Trading and In-Play Trading, both of which did pretty well here at Lay Back in the past.
(Pre-Match, in fact, did better than ‘pretty well’: it walked off with my 2013 Best Product Oscar).
Football Betting Alerts, however, looks like quite a different beast from its predecessors.
Importantly, it can be used for straight betting rather than just trading: which is likely to extend its appeal to folks with less time on their hands than your average trader.
It also comes with some very impressive claimed results.
Now, of course, I can’t vouch for these but still: you have to start somewhere.
So… what’s it all about?
FBA is a service that has apparently been developed with the help of a maths professor.
Well, no, I didn’t initially believe it either.
But the people at FBA assure me that the person behind the service is indeed a professor of mathematics – which, if true, suggests the service will be all about value.
The strike rate is also expected to be higher than I am used to – over 80%, in fact – which should hopefully make for a relatively comfortable ride.
And the service itself?
Well, it appears to depend largely on two main bet types:
- laying the draw (well, it wouldn’t be a football product without LTD, would it!?)
- laying in the correct score market – primarily, it would appear, in-play during the half-time interval.
The idea is that laying alerts are issued by the service when value is detected – so that all you have to do is enter your bets as instructed. You can attempt to trade outcomes or, if you prefer, just let the bets run until full-time.
The service is intended to be used at the exchanges, so, if it works, it will offer hope to those punters whose bookie accounts have long since been closed down.
Summary
I’m really excited about this trial.
The initial results, from the bets I’ve seen, seem very encouraging: though, of course, as ever, we need to run a robust trial ourselves and not trust third-party data.
Martin, a veteran of various trials here at Lay Back, is going to lead this one for me. And, as ever, we will aim at a minimum of 200 bets. He will be here with his first report in early April.
In the meantime, you can find out more about Football Betting Alerts over here.
Lucy
Update: 31st March 2017
Hello there, my name’s Martin, and Lucy has kindly arranged for me to trial Football Betting Alerts.
There has been quite a lot of fuss around this service and the results it is supposedly capable of producing. So naturally, I was keen to get involved and see if it would live up to all the hype.
FBA was developed by the people who produced Pre-Match Trading, In-Play Trading and a whole host of other similar trading products. Pre-Match and In-Play both did pretty well here at Lay Back And Get Rich so I was feeling cautiously optimistic when I kicked off the trial.
I’ve now been going for about a month and, as you’ll see, I’ve been pretty busy, putting on over 100 bets in that time.
And the good news is that I’m starting to get to grips with the service – and I’m making money.
So what is FBA all about?
The service provides selections, called Picks, via the FBA site only. Their advice is to check on the site 3 or 4 times a week to see if any are available. There is no email notification of these.
The posting of the Picks can be a bit random, as they are sometimes available 2 or 3 days in advance of the games but, at other times, are not posted until a few hours before kick-off. I’m not clear as to why this should be as a few times the site mentioned that there would be X amount of picks for a specific date in the future, so clearly the Picks had been decided on but they weren’t published until closer to that date.
The Picks started out as either Lay the Draw (LTD) at a stated odds value or Lay Current Score (LCS) at half time, again for a recommended odds value. Sometimes a back of the Over X Goals would be taken instead of the LCS depending on which option was most beneficial.
An additional strategy was added last week, which required that a Lay of the HT draw (HT LTD) be done for part stakes at different times during the First Half.
There didn’t appear to be any prior notification about this and the explanation of how to carry it out initially caused some confusion amongst subscribers in the chat room. A full explanation has since been posted on the site.
Living with the service
The service chat room is well populated in the evening and weekends. It is usually visited at peak times by one or more of the administrators so questions can be asked and advice received from them. This can include some live coaching of betting strategies.
The service can be time-consuming, particularly at weekends when there are lots of Picks. The LTD is ok as it can be set up pre-match but the LCS is reliant upon whatever the score and odds are at half-time and so requires input at that time.
The new HT LTD strategy also requires input at points in the first half. There is a third party bot that can be used to place bets automatically but it does not work yet for the HT LTD strategy and is only available at extra cost.
I chose to purchase a subscription to the bot but there have been some problems and it has had a number of updates in the last month. It does seem to be working now however and should be a time saver for the LCS.
The system can also be used with a small number of other generic bots on the market.
Results
My top-level results are as follows:
| Gross Profit | £257.55 |
| Commission | £39.75 |
| Net Profit | £217.80 |
| No. of Bets Placed | 105 |
| No. of Winning Bets | 83 |
| Strike Rate | 79% |
Interestingly, my profits are better than the official results as follows:
| Profit total @ £10 stakes less Betfair Commission | |
| FBA Official Results | £114.07 |
| My Profits | £217.80 |
You can download my results log here. It includes notes on individual trades where appropriate.
There could and will be many different reasons why my figures differ from the official service results, including:
- Some bets may not have been matched before a goal is scored.
- Bets may or may not have been placed after a red card has occurred.
- Bets may have been traded in late in the game where the score was close (you’ll see where I did this on my results log against individual bets).
- Some games were played in the early hours of the morning and so were not placed.
- On one occasion Betfair wasn’t working and so FBA decided it would be fairer to strike the results from their list; however, I managed to place them using other bookmakers (for a healthy profit!).
Summary
The first month of FBA has been very satisfactory. I’ve made good returns at a more-than-acceptable strike rate and, reasonably quickly, got the hang of the service.
I feel the bot offers real potential for reducing my time commitment so naturally, I’m hoping it performs smoothly in future.
I am looking forward to month #2 and will return around the end of April with my final report.
Meanwhile, you can read more about Football Betting Alerts here.
Martin
Update: 1st May 2017
Hello, Martin here with my second report on Football Betting Alerts.
There has been a lot of ‘interest’ in this new service – both positive and negative. You can get a sense of how it has divided opinion by looking at the comments section.
FBA was built by the folks behind Pre-Match Trading, In-Play Trading and a number of other trading tools. Pre-Match, in particular, was a big hit here at Lay Back so, naturally, I was hoping for great things when I kicked off the trial.
My first month went very well, with profits of around 21 points for the period, which, incidentally, was significantly better than the service’s official results.
Sadly, I lost money this month though remain in the black for the trial as a whole.
The headline figures are as follows:
| Last Month’s Profit (b/fwd) | £217.80 |
| This Month’s Profit | -£98.40 |
| Overall Profit | £119.40 |
| Overall profit (Pts) | 11.94 |
All bets have been entered to £10 stakes except for a few half stakes where the Correct Score odds were too high.
As mentioned last month, a new strategy, Lay the HT Draw, had just been introduced, which actually bombed on the first day. I lost over £100 using it. It was immediately withdrawn, although selections are still available for those who want to run with it but it is not included in the results.
Ironically the picks for the day after it was withdrawn would have won back pretty much all the losses made the previous day.
As the strategy had apparently been tested and was sound, it seems that perhaps its withdrawal was just an over-reaction to the terrible results of the first day. However, from many of the comments in the chat room and my own experience, there was no confidence in it and many would not have used it again.
You can download the complete results log for month #2 by clicking here.
The month #1 log is available for review here.
The performance of the two main strategies is as different as chalk and cheese.
The Lay the Current Score (LCS) is performing well, making a profit of £222 this month and actually surpassing last month’s LCS figure which was £151.
However, it is being dragged down by the other strategy, Lay The Draw (LTD), which lost £216 this month compared to a profit of £75 last month.
Several of the losses were, to some extent, my fault, as the advice is to trade out of a LTD any time after 82 minutes, especially if the scores are tight. I sometimes did that but I also sometimes took a chance and let the bet run or didn’t have the opportunity to trade out with the result that I inevitably got bitten by late goals and lost where I could have made a small profit. Given the discrepancies between them, there is an argument perhaps to split the two strategies and run them against separate banks.
The system is not ‘set and forget’ as interaction is needed to trade out of LTD if required and for LCS to place the bets at HT depending on the current score and odds, however there is a separately sold bot which, after a number of iterations, now seems to be working properly and is able to take on those tasks.
I would suggest that unless you want to be tied to the computer all night or all weekend, that this would be an essential additional purchase to use with the FBA system.
Summary
I’m not sure but I get the impression that as things are not running as well as first expected and that some interest has been lost. The results which were updated and published on the web page every couple of days in the past have not been amended since 20th April.
Also, apparently one or more of the Admins were on holiday or otherwise unavailable and so the picks for last weekend were sent by e-mail and not put up on the web site, despite the standing advice being to check the website every few days for picks.
I can’t understand how, if it were possible to compile a list and email it out why it was not possible to update a web page with that same information. The subscription for this service is quite high and so it should not be too much to ask to have a little consistency about this.
The system is still in profit and things look encouraging for the LCS part of the system, although the high subscription fee would have to be factored into any decision about whether it represents good value.
I intend to run the trial for another two months to get past the ups and downs of normal trialling. Let’s hope this month was just a blip and we return to winning ways next time.
I’ll be back around the start of June.
Meantime, you can read more about Football Betting Alerts here.
Martin
Update: 31st May 2017
Hello, Martin here with my third monthly report on Football Betting Alerts.
I’m almost reluctant to make comments on the system this month, as I feel the whole subject has proven to be so controversial. If you don’t know what I’m referring to, you just need to look at the comments at the foot of the page.
I fear some readers, seeing these remarks, may well have essentially consigned the product – and my trial of it – to the dustbin. But my testing is ongoing and I intend to see it through to the end so that the results can speak for themselves.
A quick recap then: FBA is a new service from the guys behind Pre-Match Trading, In-Play Trading and a whole family of other betting products, several of which have done pretty well in trials here at Lay Back.
I have been testing for three months, during which, almost inevitably given that this is sports betting, I’ve experienced boths ups and downs.
In short, month #1 went well and month #2 didn’t but I came into month #3 with a modest profit.
So… would FBA return to form in month #3 or would there be further setbacks along the way?
It’s actually been a pretty positive month for the service.
The top-level performance statistics are as follows:
| Football Betting Alerts – Month 3 | |
| Month 3 Combined Profit (All 3 Methods) | £189.40 |
| Method 1 – LCS Monthly Profit | £278.16 |
| Method 2 – LTD Monthly Profit | -£88.76 |
| Method 3 – HT LTD Monthly Profit | £0.00 |
| Brought Forward Profit from Months 1 & 2 | £119.40 |
| Whole Trial Net Profit (£) | £308.80 |
| Whole Trial Net Profit (Pts.) | 30.88 |
As you can see the overall profit has risen from £119.40 last month to £308.80, an increase of £189.40 after Betfair commission to £10 stakes.
Without the LTD bets, the monthly profit would have been £278, which inevitably make you wonder whether to bother with them at all (You can see why I don’t have a decision to make about this in the Summary section below). In any event, I think it’s fair to say that FBA has had a good month overall.
If only the LCS picks had been bet on, the results would have been even better. Interestingly, if you look at the previous two months, each of those would have been profitable as well, if only LCS bets had been entered.
You can get hold of the complete results log for month #3 by clicking here.
Month #2 results are here and month #1 data is here.
Summary
The service is performing a lot better in my trial than many of the naysayers would have you believe.
However, the monthly subscription charge is £79, so this does need to be taken into account when looking at what profit is made.
My concern is that FBA was supposed to have been tested extensively, so it seems odd that, three months or so after its release, the supplier has effectively admitted that there is an issue with the LTD picks and that that they will be concentrating only on LCS bets for a while.
That, and the withdrawal of the HT LTD tips after disastrous results last month, makes me wonder just how rigorous the testing really was.
There are one or two other gripes as well.
- A few times, the game times that were published were out by one hour which meant I missed putting bets on.
- Also, the general administration has sometimes been of poor quality. I recently received a message to say that now the admins were back from holiday this would be addressed. But for a supposedly professional service charging a very large subscription, I think the absence of administrators for whatever reason should not impact on the service people are paying for.
I’m going to keep the trial going for at least one more month and then wrap things up for good.
I’ll be back with my conclusion around the end of June.
Meanwhile, you can find out more about Football Betting Alerts here.
Martin
Fat chance of that I am afraid. But don’t worry last I heard Ads was offering financial trading advice you could sign up for instead………….
I’ve just noticed you can’t access the website anymore.
What an absolute scam this whole thing was, they should refund everyone that ever signed up
Lol
Glad to see that massive pile of steaming horse crap has been given the review it deserves
If it’s working for you that’s great , good luck.
I believe the exchange doesn’t work this way, due to many reasons.
But I wish you and all on here good luck
Best
George
George of course they’re going to complain, why? because they can’t bloody do it. You can’t learn these methods in a few weeks, it takes months and a lot of patience. I’ve had it a couple of months now and still only learned a couple of the methods. You said yourself if you place the recocery bets you either get a small profit or break even. It’s the learning involved which gets you to that point mate.
What’s actually happened here is not magic, a guy Tony after 18 months of trial and error has found a way of being able to cover all possible outcomes if the game goes against you, that’s it. I only wished I’d thought of it…:-)
Anyway George maybe we should agree to disagree eh? I’m happy, it’s working for me.
good luck George.
Gerry.
Rules to successful trading or betting
Bank management
Use Compound
Have an edge
Deal with Loss
Think long term
Don’t use loss recovery
George
Have to say it’s amazing reading the You Tube film on this system
Guy lost £800 on Chelsea v Burnley
First game of the season
Couldn’t recover
As I previously mentioned loss recovery gets you in the end , read Gamling Commission notes on it
It’s not banned for nothing
In fact Lucy wrote a great essay on it
Miss her
George
Type in Daisho into you tube
Guy has put a full website up, complaining about the system.
Of course we could take Gerrys view that he is a fool, who can’t be taught, or believe that this system cannot lose at all, lol
Come on get serious
George
I just typed Daisho into you tube this came up
https://www.thedaishosystemscam.co.uk/ticket-support
This is an example of one of the trades going tits up.
Makes interesting reading
George.
I must reply to the above because it’s not correct. Daisho is a trading system with a 97% win strike rate. Yes you place recovery bets for the remaining 3% and as stated above you break even or make a small profit. You never lose money, now how the hell does that lead to the poor house.
Obviously someone is not happy because they either don’t have the ability to learn the methods and just want to talk it down. Because what is written is not correct, this is a well thought out trading method that they just can’t get their heads around.
DAISHO is a loss recovery system with a high strike rate. Through provided selections or your own selections, a trade and a counter trade are placed.
If all ok happy days. But if the trade goes against you, stakes will be needed that can accumulate very quickly to gain a small win or break even. These bets can be large depending on your initial outlay.
This system is basically a loss recovery loss aversion system, which will lead you to the poor house.
There is no value in loss recovery
May have a long run, but eventually, you’ll go bust.
Don’t believe me?
The Gambling Commision has banned this style of betting.
It will end in taking you to the poor house.
Please be careful
and
Happy Christmas
George
HandyAndy,
Hi, I did say I wouldn’t mention this product again and I won’t, but if people continue to post about stating it’s rubbish etc when they haven’t even got it or know how it works, then I’m sorry I can’t do anything about that
Perhaps they should try and contact others that have it and see how they’re doubling their betting bank every two or three months.
All the best,
Gerry.
My god get a life man, you just don’t listen do you,
THE DAISHO TRADING SYSTEM IS NOT AVAILABLE ANYMORE AND HAS NOT BEEN FOR WEEKS, YOU GOT THAT?
Tianjin Airlines Office, Tianjin China, Nankai District, I live there when not in the UK, look me up sometime… 🙂
Gerry,
Happy to and if im wrong ill by you a beer, in the mean time though i’ll carry on with the life if you don’t mind.
Ted
By the way there was no real need to shout, as we all know this is closed and will never ever be reopened to anybody because you said so!
Unless your not being honest which is a terrible thing to consider of course!
Ted
Ok Ted, no problem, sorry for the shouting. Let me explain, we’re a small company of just four aircraft, we was part of the Tianjin group then got the chance to work for the Air China group. I’m semi retired now, but help out when we’re short staffed. That’s why I have a lot of spare time on my hands.
Like I said I love gambling, probably to much, and if I can help anyone I’m happy to do so. I can assure I was not promoting the Daisho system, just telling it as I so it, and yes I think it’s good.
Now I said we wouldn’t mention this again, so I think we should do that. Enjoy life mate, it’s not a rehearsal.
Gerry.
Interesting you say this, since I’ve received 7 emails from Tim Lowe over the past 8 days trying to sell me this magic system which ‘never loses’ and which you have based your integrity on being closed forever.
The subject lines are particularly cringeworthy:
“URGENT – Major breakthrough makes this limited time offer even more profitable for you!!”
“The cleverest home trading strategy there is bar none, HAS JUST GOT EVEN EASIER!!”
“Now, Mark … even the selections are done for you!!!”
“Unlock your very own ‘Cash On Tap’ lifestyle without even leaving your living room”
“The door to your ‘Cash On Tap’ Lifestyle closes at Midnight”
“The door to your ‘Cash On Tap’ Lifestyle closes at Midnight”
“LAST CALL: Just 6 Hours left, Mark – don’t let this pass you by…”
And all this after the last set of emails which stated that it was my last chance ever to buy the magic ‘never loses’ system before it closed. I wonder how long it will be before I’ll get another ‘last chance’ to spend £1000s on this rubbish. January sale, anyone?
This thread has gone off topic. If you wish to continue talking about this then it would be appreciated if you would use another forum or ask Lucy to start one up on here. Thanks.
Sorry mate, but when people ask questions would be rude not to answer, will stop now ok.
Its not okay!
Threads concerning reviews of services good or bad are being hijacked by others with spurious claims!
The common theme is the promotion by Gerry of the benefits of Daisihio, the claims for this system / methodology by Gerry are unsustainable.
If anybody has the inclination just search the posts by Gerry and look for the indicators;
These may include :- Slating others “These systems are crap (despite votes), the only good one is my mates” (no review) received bad reviews via facebook and trust pilot.
The claim that it always wins!
It will last forever!
Nothing always wins because there would be no layers for your bet!
Nothing lasts forever because markets change!
Ted
For information I have no knowledge of MMR in fact I have rarely posted elsewhere and have only done so because of the nature of your posts which i find unpalatable
With respect to this site I will not republish information regarding the system your promoting which is freely available under a google search .
Ted
Genuinely good luck to Gerry, but you won’t be convincing me anytime soon. Tony langley has a habit of piggybacking other people’s methods.
This is what I have heard too, 2k a time though, good work if you can get it!
To be honest I don’t really care how Tony operates, I’ve now done well over a hundred trades, and not lost one of them. About 95% were outright winners and the other 5% I used his recovery methods. Some broke even, the others a small profit. This is not a loss recovery system were your bets get out of hand, it’s knowing how to counteract if the game is not going your way by placing bets to offset any loss.
This is the knowledge you are paying big bucks for, and it works, you can’t lose your money if you stick to the system methods. I’ve been gambling all my life and I have a few of my own betting systems, many who use to be on MMR will know what I’m talking about. With this system/method you have something that will pay you for life. Yes you can quit your job once you are experienced enough, it’s that good.
There have been a couple of guys on here thinking I have some connection with Tim or Tony, or some kind of affiliate. It makes me laugh, I own 50% of an airline business contracted by Air China airlines, I’m a qualified commercial pilot who flies 747s when we’re short staffed, do I really need the money… ? 🙂
Have fun guys…
Which systems are you referring to within Tony’s portfolio?
Whether you need the money is not for me to ascertain, If it works for you Gerry that is all that matters.
Playing devil’s advocate your profit could be a freak of stats.
All I know is I have a deep understanding how exchanges work, so the claims made by the author are hard to understand.
Some myths exist such slicer’s bet, though not the way presented in Dashio, I currently pay under £20 a month to trade these selections and not the £2000 or more paid by us sucked in by marketing.
I remember you from MMR, especially on FBB thread, you seem to wax lyrical about that been profitable as well, so in my opinion you seem respectful.
Andy,
There are about half dozen different methods of trading different markets in football in the Daisho system. A couple have some variations in them so about 10 different methods altogether. This is just Daisho, it’s a totally different way of selection and recovery than the football hedging.
You need a lot of patience and study, basically he’s found a way of placing recovery bets that covers every outcome no matter what happens. I know what you mean about myths and all that, I too have been round the block a few times, been with Betfair since it started.
I must admit and I’ve only learned a couple of the methods as it takes time and patience. But when I was in trouble, I followed what was in the manual exactly, looked at it again after placing recovery bets, tried all ways to find a fault, there wasn’t one, I could not lose money no matter what happened, pure genius mate and that saying something coming from me…
Yeah we had some fun with that FBB thread on MMR, my god we turned it upside down, happy days..
Hi Andy,
Where do you get these selections from?
Cheers
Of course you own half an air line and fly 747’s, that’ s why your on gambling sites promoting trading systems for other people!
Your the typical ones I was reffering to, I love gambling, it’s my hobby, like the challenge.
What’s your hobby, trolling forum websites? had a lot like you on MMR.
Yeah I remember a Ted….. now go and play like a good boy….
And just to add, the doors are closed for the Daisho system, makes you look a bit silly as to what you were infering, you think?…..
Hi Andy,
The Daisho methods are totally different to football hedging, only similar in trying to not lose money. I don’t think members would be very happy after paying a hell of a lot more if that was true. The methods you are talking about are not the same as Daisho. I understand you had problems, maybe that’s why your not very happy about Tim Lowe and Tony Langley. The Daisho methods do work and you can’t lose money if you are prepared to learn.
Anyways, good luck in your betting.
Hi Gerry,
Yes as a Football Hedging paid up member I have access to Dashio methods
I will have a look tomorrow Lee, off to work now.
I don’t have my own service, just follow overs or subscribe.
Twitter apetodad, I have a blog nothing to do with gambling midlifespread.co.uk
ok cool, ill have a look at your site, best of luck with your betting
Yep, similar to yourself.
I am a customer of a small service which supplies L2B and B2L, also genius correct score method.
Matched betting and casino whoring.
Portfolio betting.
Are you on facebook ?
Nice one mate, I did used to do B2L myself but more profit is made from backing them to win (in my case) but when you look for front runners then B2L does seem decent enough.
No I am on Twitter
@L_Rothery_Trader
Are you on Twitter – I will follow you, can have a chat on there if you like? Always good to share ideas
correction LRothery_Trader – doh!
Lee, its just a vendetta, people should do their own research. Actually do you make money from gambling/trading, if so what methods and systems do you use?
Yes I do, I have three strategies:
1 – backing horses to win
2 – laying horses to lose
3 – late lays which has worked for 5 years, this is cheap lays late in games on a certain market but key to it is not laying above a certain price.
Of course it would not be pertinent of me to reveal my strategies, that’s why I run a Whatsapp Group.
How about you?
Lee, give it a rest, you are like a dog with a bone, no good harping on about it and being bitter and twisted, far better to point us all in the direction of a profitable site . Keep going on about it, you will increase footfall to their site because they will be curious.
TBH are had similar issues with Tim Lowe and the guy who runs Football Hedging/Dashio, those sites are far more dangerous.
Just think prospective members should be made aware of the slapdash nature of the set up – if I have saved some honest people money then job done
Andy
Can I ask you why you think the Daisho not Dashio website is dangerous? Also have you purchased the trading system?
Because if not, you wouldn’t be able to access that site. I have and in no way is it dangerous, infact it’s very profitable when you learn the methods and you can’t lose your money…. just curious about your comment.
LATEST NEWS…
site down,
scanner not working
chat room not working
superb value for members!
my comments awaiting moderation now, i wonder if they will show those screenshots?
Amazing
1) No one in chat, Ads makes a rare appearance asking is anyone about
https://snag.gy/FR1tUg.jpg
2) 3.40pm and site down, what a mess
https://snag.gy/1VDyev.jpg
@error404,
Always good if a site is helpful, but ultimately is the site profitable or a place to learn or both?
I’m a member of Live Football Trading and have found it immensely helpful and friendly. Bingo is always open about his losses, and doesn’t try and disguise results. At IPT/FBA, I had been warned against this service, but none of it was true. Everyone is encouraged to post trades and learn from one another. FBA is the trading equivalent of a pyramid scheme – the only person making £££ is Ads at the top from gullible members (though rapidly dwindling I’m reliably told).
I used to run a football service for six years until the end of August when I decided enough was enough. I like to think that I have enough experience to see the good with the bad. I joined Bingo’s football service where I am happy to dip in and out occasionally. Bingo and Ads used to be business partners but a couple of years back they went their separate ways.
I have nothing to gain by mentioning that Bingo’s service is quality. He provides a proper down to earth service and a good learning experience for anyone coming into trading. He treats all his clients with the best of respect with not a hint of patronisation, spin and false promises.
There are plenty of experienced traders on hand but what is most important is that there are no big heads trying to wave their c**ks about. It is a genuinely friendly and helpful experience. Check them out at livetradingfootball.com
The next big thing he is trying to push onto people is financial trading using Etoro which is not even proper trading on the financial markets!
Oh sorry
G
@ George
I might be wrong, but is it not Ads who runs FBA, PMT and TTH.
Bingo was the other guy who has a site called Live Football Trading.
He also runs PMT Pre Match Trading
Lucy reviewed this a while back
G
The guy who runs FBA and other sites used to run it with someone else, forget which is which, was it Bingo? Just looked it up and its called Live football trading, anybody with thoughts on that site. Maybe a review of that service would be good.
Well I know what I think about fba outfit… but when you see how often someone posts on LBGR now and the the lack of interaction and conversation, think it’s days maybe numbered.
When you compare it to how we was on MMR, never ending conversations and topics, but the trolls and bad management and moderation ended all that…
What’s MMR
More money review site, use to be one of the best till idiots took control…… 🙂
Rant over
I haven’t been here since Lucy left
Bye
G
Be careful with this dross, you don’t need to buy these junk systems to make money on Betfair
Well said guys, some time ago now (although that thread got deleted from this site) Ads accused me of creating false profiles, it’s nice to see over time the penny finally dropping for people.
If I was a member I would be insulted that he isn’t in chat for hours every day trying to put things right. I feel sorry for the members.
There is no science to the dross these people put out. Just because I had 3 min spare I watched a video this guy made.
He clearly has no understanding of the correlation Betfair Markets have or cross-matching, total failure of a system, top say a professor was involved was beyond a joke. Truly Woeful
G
I can replicate the same results for free
You heard me correctly
FREE
George
All true
wouldn’t it be great if Betfair published these morons P/L
would you buy their junk then?
This site should carefully select the systems it puts forward, before even putting them up to members who may be weak in their selection process.
Beware Beware Beware
Good luck all
G
FBA are entirely right to say that the Professor is not in a U.K time zone. That’s because said Professor lives inside Ads head.
No real way of putting a positive spin on the figures, and it’s about time he had a review like this – many ex-members have been saying it for a while after watching their banks being decimated.
It’s a clever marketing scheme. Nothing more. How often does he appear in chat from his villa? Not much. The money is earned from affiliates and clever spin. Certainly not from professional trading.
Professor 😂😂😂😂
This has to be the greatest BS I’ve heard
It should win an award for that these people are clueless beware. Please beware
G
Why anyone would pay 1p a month for this shite is beyond me, they have banned 8 people to my knowledge because they dared to question the results in chat .
Ads and his band of merrymen never cease to make me laugh, I had one contact me on Twitter the other day, just clueless sheep with no idea how to make money from any sports.
A great example was this today email from the leader:
Getafe v Eibar 12pm
Looks like both teams to score and Overs to me. Last 4 head to heads seen both sides scoring and sides average 71 and 86% for Over 2.5 this season, so Overs currently at 2.24 look big value. Let’s try this. Back Over 2.5 £20, Back 2-0 £3, 1-1 £5, 0-0 £2.
Won’t be in this for this one but try this.
Juventus v Milan 19.45pm
Same as above, fancy goals and good chance of BTTS. Back Over 2.5 £23, Back 1-1 £5, 2-0 £3.
Both games 0-0 lol
New thing now is he is now trying to rope people into trading currencies!
The guy is a chancer and I do feel sorry for the genuine people out there who are members! Hope they took out a loan
Professor? living outside the UK?
Not a bloke called Chris from the chat room who lives in Liverpool then?
I could be wrong but….
Ted
HAHA Deffo the famous Chris_EFC by any chance?
Hi Amy,
You only have to read the comments of those members who have actually dealt with this company.
Those are the facts, why would you want anything to do with a company that operate in this manner.
As one of your members has just stated, they are ” conmen ” and that’s putting it mildly, no matter if the results are in profit or not, we’ve all seen how they operate.
Regards Gerry.
Hey Gerry
I have seen plenty of comments, but I don’t know that they are facts.
I believe that these are the same people who won a Betting System Oscar back in 2013 so they have obviously done a lot right in the past, otherwise readers of Lay Back would not have voted for them. All I can do is carry out an independent trial and judge the experience for myself, then share it with you all.
I completely understand that a number of people here don’t like the product or the people behind it (or both) but I want to see what’s going on for myself and make a judgement which is honest and fair to everyone involved. You obviously know a lot more than me about what’s been going on, so let me catch up!
I look forward to your catch up
G
Hey everyone
I understand that this trial has been quite controversial. However, that was before my time and the trial was not wrapped up. In order for me to determine a Pass, Neutral or Fail I need more results and I think that the most accurate way to determine that would be to log a fresh set rather than add one more month to the existing trial results (which were in profit, by the way).
All trials and reviews will be carried out with an open mind. After all, that’s the entire point of Lay Back. I will judge each system and service on results, customer service, price and anything else relevant to us as potential customers.
A reminder: Constructive comments are always welcome, whether positive or negative. However, please be respectful at all times or I will remove/edit as I see fit. Accusations made without concrete evidence can be deemed libelous and I cannot risk having that sort of thing on my site.
I’m just as keen to find out the truth about systems and services as anyone else. If something turns out to be crap, then I have no problem saying so… but it will be based on facts I have gathered.
Am really surprised here that Keith is going in with “AN OPEN MIND” for a new review. tell that to all the blokes bankroll those conmen blew. Never mind !!
Hi Keith,
I understand as regards you doing a review with an open mind. Having said that, there are many on here who have lost all respect for this company. They were treated in a very rude manner, and this oufit proved how they operated in an underhand way. They tried to deceive and became quite abusive if anyone complained.
In my opinion they doen’t deserve a second review after the way they treated their subscribers. Your just giving them more free advertising that they certainly don’t deserve. Not to mention the rip-off subscription charges of £79 a month, they forgot to deduct from their profit margins. They are dishonest and not interested in anyone but themselves….
Regards Gerry.
Hi Gerry
Amy told me there have been some readers who have asked when the previous review would be concluded and as Martin is no longer available she has asked me if I would be interested in checking it out.
Although I have read the previous comments I think it would be wrong of me to approach the review with anything other than an open mind and a fresh start with no preconceived views based on the old review.
This review will be based on what is on offer now, not what was on offer before, and for the current subscription fee and will look at the accuracy of the official published results , customer service when required, ease of use etc etc as you would expect along with what seems to have been a touchy subject before, does it make money after subscription costs and how big does your stake have to be before you make a profit.
As I said in the intro we have started just as there is an international break in the league programs so we are off to a very slow start. We could have started the review after this period had ended but I wanted to include it because as a subscriber you are still paying for it and so it should be included in any analysis we make.
It may of course turn out that you are correct in your analysis of the system and those running it but that is what we are here to find out 🙂
btw although Amy is quite busy right now with existing reviews I’m sure she would be more than happy for you to suggest ones you would like to see in the future.
Cheers
Keith
Hi Keith,
To be honest I think you could be wasting your time. Everyone on here must know by now how these clowns operate. They manipulate profit margins to make it look better, they certainly can’t stand any negative comments. I see they’ve had to reduce the subscription charges, surprise, surprise.
Basically they are a waste of time in my opinion, and as for being a proffessor, what a joke, my dog could do better!….
Rather have review on an honest and open and up front company, not this bunch of morons who haven’t a clue…
Have fun what ever you do…. 🙂
oh it seems like they are now so I will ask again something I asked a few weeks back.
Please can you confirm when the monthly reviews and final review will be released?
looks like comments are not being approved for this page but are for others which I find odd
Hi, is there going to be a final review for FBA?
Also, just noticed the guys behind this have launched yet another trading website……………
I’ve lost all respect for this lot after this product release.
From launch to now, the whole thing has been farcical and still they have the arrogance to charge loads for their products.
Still, they’ve got a real life maths professor to calculate if there will be a 2nd half goal so all will be fine I’m sure 🙂
Perhaps, Big Jay, you might wish to join the new “service” http://www.livesportstrading.co.uk/subscriptions – £29 for access to a chat room where the “traders” have no records of their monthly P/L, and where people have regularly lost following their “tips.” I would pay £29 to keep these so-called “traders” away from my Betfair bank!!
Actually deduct another £20 Betfair commission as I was working on the figure after deducting the subscription charges, It actually comes off the £796 they quote, so your total profit is £361 quid compare to their stated £796 profit…
Does anyone know what’s going on over there?
They haven’t posted any results since the 4th June?!
Think you only see an update and hear from them when they have a good run, not when they’re down to their last £20 quid…. 🙂
Wouldn’t touch em with a barge pole!…..
Careful Gerry, we’re not allowed to be negative
Lee I think negative is just the right word…when june finishes – £30 plus your ripp-off £79 subscription,
leaving you down £109 for the month of june.
These guys are a joke, stating £796 profit since they started in feb, forgot to mention to deduct £395
in subscription charges leaving a profit of an actual £401 quid, then deduct betfair commission another £20 leaving a total of £381 quid profit. Bit different from their £796 quid eh?……
Like I said, you only hear the buls–t when they have a good run!….
The figures are actually worse than you have worked out. You have assumed betfair commission on the total winnings. You only pay 5% commission on winning bets.
so to use Junes figures of the £30 loss @ stakes of £20 ;
22/28 bets won
5% of £20 = £1
Therefore £22 in commission is a total loss of £52 on the month.
In May there were about 68 winning bets, assuming all were £20 stakes (I know some were £10) that is another £60-£68 to be taken off in betfair commission. That’s over £80 in commission for May and June. Think of the total profit now……..
Unfortunately, I think you’re pretty spot on Gerry
I can’t understand anyone paying £79 quid a month for this, even the profit showing on their website isn’t deducting the commission. It’s a simple lay the correct score, with certain odds required. I bet they’re rubbing their hands and laughing everytime someone signs up at that ripp-off monthly subsription!….
Been away for a week on holiday so I’ve only just seen the latest comments.
Its true the returns are quite low given my modest £10 stakes and the subscription fees. From 1st April FBA said they were going to raise the suggested stake to £20 stakes and their results reflect this, but I decided to stick with £10 for continuity.
They recommend that if the odds on the current score at half time is greater than 4.5 then half stakes are used on whatever the odds are at that time, then the other half of the stake is put on when and if the odds drop to a value that makes the average odds equal to 4.5. This is so that the liability will never exceed that of the total stake placed at 4.5. About 30% of the LCS bets I placed last month were placed with half stakes and never dropped sufficiently to place the other half stake bet. They are actually recorded on the FBA official results and shown by the Gross Profit being = £10 where the stake is = £20.
LCS recommended price causes a traffic jam at 4.5 even on alternative markets and could in a small number of matches mean not getting matched.
TBH got enough systems and methods to test without joining FBA.
Hi Andy,
You are certainly correct 🙂 I think Martin has been using fairly modest stakes.
We also need a breakdown of how many achieve the average 4.5 LCS price quoted, with the official results reflecting half stakes/unavailable prices where necessary. At the moment, I’m a bit put off by the lack of transparency in the official results, as well as the high sub costs and reports of poor CS. I’ll pass on this one for now.
*Sorry, I meant how often the 4.5 price is really available.
You make the assumption that everyone stakes at the same levels, goes without saying that the profit will be bigger for larger stakes. I am not defending the service or the price charged just clarifying the statement from Error404.
Hi Lee,
See above. £35.80 over three months = £11.93 per month for something costing £79. Obviously, this is only going on Martin’s results; but we should certainly be aware of grand claims of four figure profits. However, perhaps it will pick up.
The chat has merged with IPT from the e-mails I received. It’s not very lively at present to say the least; hence the offer to join it for £2 in July. I’m not sure who the “pro traders” are supposed to be as none post their monthly records which makes it difficult to evaluate things.
I notice the review cautions us against being negative, so I think it’s best to leave the figures above to speak for themselves.
Thanks Error, I did wonder.
Martin, what are the results overall to include the high subs & BOT?
I’ve noticed that the chat room is no longer part of the service, do you know if they have now got rid of this?
It’s a shame because in my experience this is the but where the best ideas are exchanged.
Hi Martin,
Thanks for a slightly more positive view. I just want to be sure I have my sums right:
Trial Profit: £308.80
Less three months subs (237),
Less the BOT subscription x 3 (36) – you really do need this, so it’s fair to factor it in.
= £35.80 profit over three months.
Of course, members profits will vary, but this isn’t looking especially impressive in light of the large subscription fee. That was always going to make things difficult and put people off.
Interesting to see the LCS is continuing to do well.
I do have to wonder if they introduced the other methods (which seemed largely untested) to justify the large monthly fee to give the impression of value?
All the best