Back in 2015, Lucy was all set to review the Assured Soccer Profits correct score trading system
For one reason or another though, it seems that she never did get around to completing her trial. I’d heard great things about this system so I decided to pick up from where she left off and give it a bash.
Nothing seemed to have changed since she wrote her original introduction to the system, as the last time it was updated was in 2014 to reflect the changes to the Betfair Any Unquoted market (now Any Other Home/Away Win). That being said, the system is certainly still alive and kicking.
John regularly updates the “Diary” page with his analysis of upcoming matches and reports any results from games that he has traded.
My experience trading with Assured Soccer Profits
I have to admit, I’m hardly a trading pro. I have done my fair share of matched betting over the years but football trading is something that I haven’t put a lot of time into.
The manual says that you can start with a bank as small as £200-£300 and I’m quite a risk averse person when it comes to money, so starting small suits me fine. After loading my Betfair up with funds, I set about finding some suitable matches to trade.
There are several filters that need to be checked first but I found it quite easy to find some qualifying matches that fitted the bill, even before the winter leagues had kicked off.
There is a quick guide that I referred back to for this process but I strongly recommend reading the full guide, as it gives you advice on what to do in pretty much every scenario.
After trading a few matches I started to feel comfortable with how the system works and I found that when things go to plan, you can be all done and out with a profit before half time.
There are a number of things that can happen to make the trade run less smoothly, but the key is not to panic and just follow the advice that John gives for that particular scenario. It takes practice for sure and it’s worth paper trading for a while to get used to it.
The aim is to take a small profit from each trade and gradually build your bank. It’s not a “get rich quick” system but those small gains can add up to a nice extra income so long as you stick to the rules.
Assured Soccer Profits Member’s Area
The Assured Soccer Profits member’s area is home to a wealth of resources including the main PDF which explains the system in detail, the quick guide and plenty of video examples. In the Method Modules there is an archive of blog posts and articles relating to ASP for further reading.
There is also the ASP Statistical Stream provided by Goal Profits which highlights games that are potentially good matches to trade using the ASP system. Although this only provides data from league games, it seems that the system can be used for cup matches too, as John himself has traded several games throughout the World Cup.
In the Member’s Download area there are even more resources to be found including calculators, spreadsheets and trading guides.
All of this costs a one off price of £83 + VAT which seems pretty reasonable to me, given everything that comes with the system. It’s much more than just a PDF.
I enjoyed testing this system and it is one I know that I will continue to use long after this review. It takes a bit of learning but it is worth it to be able to make those consistent profits with very little risk.
It’s rare to find a football trading system that actually works so I’m delighted to be able to give my approval on this one.
Click here to read more about Assured Soccer Profits
Lucy’s Original Introduction: 17th March 2015
Recently I was lucky enough to receive a new Ipod for a present.
And it prompted me to fill a major gap in my music collection with a few classics that I’ve long been missing.
Which is pretty much how I feel about the new trial we’re starting today.
You see, there’s a gap here at Lay Back without a review of this service…
Launched in 2012 and voted, by readers, as runner-up for the Best Football System Award in my 2012 Betting Oscars, it’s a product many of you will have heard of.
Indeed I’m regularly asked if I’ve already reviewed it.
So, I’m delighted to announce our long overdue trial of…. Assured Soccer Profits!
ASP comes with quite a pedigree.
John Duncan, the man behind it, launched his first online service, Football Cash Generator, way back in 2003.
And he even tells me (believe this if you will!) that he personally invented the ubiquitous Lay the Draw strategy.
Bet he wishes he’d been able to bank royalties on that!
So… what is Assured Soccer Profits all about then?
First and foremost, it’s a trading product – the exact opposite of ‘bet and forget’.
As the sales page says, “The more effort you are prepared to put in, the more you can learn and the more you can make”.
It apparently takes a few weeks and a fair bit of practice to master the strategy, though it should get easier once you’ve got the hang of it.
John also emphasises that you don’t need to know anything about football to be successful.
Ultimately, it’s about trading well, rather than understanding the finer points of the offside rule.
The general aim is to try to win small but regular amounts.
The sales page says that ASP “is perfect for someone who could use an extra £15, £20 or so per day and has some time on his or her hands”.
It adds that, “Anyone with even very small betting exchange account funds (£200 to £300) can run with this system”.
So it does sound like it may hold quite broad appeal.
And, assuming it works, you should soon recover your initial outlay, as ASP sells for just £83.
So what do you get for your money?
On the face of it, it would appear quite a lot.
The membership package includes:
- A full manual, as well as a quick start guide.
- Tutorial videos to improve your understanding of the strategy.
- On-site tutorial blogs and advice on particular strategies.
- Members’ area.
- Access to bet calculators and other helpful tools.
- All upgrades and alterations.
- Lots and lots of support! (John actually says he will “keep talking to you until you simply don’t need us any more because you have mastered it”!)
So it all sounds pretty comprehensive.
It’s also something of a moving target, as John appears to be constantly updating it.
The full manual was refreshed as recently as February 2015, and there are further changes afoot: e.g. the Quick Start guide is shortly to be amended to cover Betfair’s phasing out of the ‘Any Unquoted‘ option on Correct Score markets.
Here’s hoping Assured Soccer Profits lives up to its billing!
Yes, indeed, the markets change continuously.
Most Forex bots simply don’t work long-term. I’ve yet to see one that works in all market conditions – or that can tell the difference! If anyone developed one that did, I doubt they’d sell it so if you want to know if a Forex bot is profitable or not, check if it’s on sale! 🙂
I was/am (currently in hiatus because of founder’s commitments) a member of a small group developing Forex bots. Basically, we optimise the heck out of them, hope they’ll run for a few trades then re-optimise. Quite intricate and time-consuming.
I’ll check out the book 🙂
@ChrisR – kudos for trying to bot it. I wondered if some of GP’s systems could be botted and initially thought about flow-charting some of the simpler systems like Lay The Draw but there was little value in the LTD variations I looked at.
Having said that, if you actually try to write down a set of concrete rules for some of these trading systems you soon see how complex and involved they are. Easy for a human (relatively speaking!) but not so easy to objectively quantify. If it could be done then the system could easily (again, speaking relatively) be tested.
It’s telling to note that I don’t know of any trading system with a set of step-by-step objective rules. If anyone knows of one, do let us know.
I have automated LTD using OCO (Order cancels order) in a few bots – I don’t like using it too much in the Match Odds market, as it isn’t profitable, but I have used LTD Twist and some other strats from GP. Still yet to find a killer bot that will make a profit 24×7 for me, but won’t stop me tinkering and trying.
Anyone who trades Forex will know how difficult it is to have a bot make decisions like the human brain can. Arguably better entries/exits, when rules are stuck to, but applying logic automatically seems elusive.
Anyway, as soon as a profitable bot is created and released (probably sold to lots of people) the value in trading it would be reduced as these markets are very accurate. I’m convinced a value approach will lose over time, for the same reason. If you’re interested there’s a great ebook called The Holy Grail Forex Trading System by James Windsor, available where all good ebooks are available from. That talks about finding a holy grail (hence the name 🙂 ) and seeing the market around you change over time, turning it in to a losing system.
Thanks Grumpy. 🙂
Bots occasionally may seem the answer to a maiden’s prayer, but ASP, I fear, remains beyond them. Humans still are not entirely superfluous…
Couldn’t the emotion and screen time be taken out of it by programming a BOT!
I’ve tried to automate ASP, but it seems quite difficult. I’ve used Gruss Betfair Assistant and made some linked Excel spreadsheets to do it, with rules and formulas applied. To be honest, I’m not a bot expert! (Oo, er, missus…) I think it would be possible to automate “profit” trades, or those with little action in the first half – which for me is about 50% of the trades I’ve entered. (Profit, or break even with some risk if loads of second half goals arrive) Those matches with loads of first half goals, you would have to trade yourself, IMHO.
I don’t agree with the reviewers comments on the amount of time spent per trade – you can sit and watch the market moving, which you should do when you first start out, but you soon realise that certain games perform the in same way. Most games, with not a lot of action early doors, could be left to have unmatched bets matched at certain points during the in play period and you can come back to take any evasive action needed if certain things happen at certain times in the match.
It is possible to trade many matches at the same time – in fact, it’s recommended with an initial liability for new starters of up to £30-£40 max per match and a recommended £200 bank, so trading multiple matches at the same time isn’t out of the question. (There are reasons this bank is recommended, even if you have more “disposable” cash to use with it, btw) It wouldn’t be possible to do that if you had to watch each match as it plays out. On the flip side of that, if a few of those games go “wrong” you might struggle to manage them all at the same time. The exit points for each would also probably be reached at much the same time/minutes in the match – one of the reasons I wanted to try to automate, as you can leave the break even matches to their own thing, while you concentrate on minimising risk on those matches going against you.
None of this will make sense to anyone who doesn’t own ASP, going in to more detail would give the method away and is probably better saved for the passworded page for purchasers.
It would be a biased review as I’ve already used for a year and know it’s profitable. Plus I’m don’t actually trade football during the summer 🙂 I really think asp is best used in the main season as it’s about doing as many games as possible, like the authors say. I like to trade around 4 games at a time sometimes more
Thanks for being kind about the site if not the trial!
The problem is that triallists are unpaid enthusiasts, and there is therefore only so much I can ask them to do. When two of them walk away from the table – the first being one of my most experienced triallists, Ian, and the other being someone who is doing a pretty decent job of testing Little Acorns, including getting to grips with the Revelation Staking Plan – I have to ask why.
Furthermore, Chris, who comments at length above, is an experienced user of ASP and appears to agree with my assessment so that makes me feel better too. 🙂
So yes, I’d like to continue if at all possible but I cannot force people to use systems that they don’t want to test!
Unless maybe you’d like to pick it up!? 😉
To be honest your trialists must be terrible Lucy! A quick google search of ASP review and you will find endless reviews good or bad I fail to see how someone can not trial this. The response from your trialist tells me he’s lazy and just wants to see money accumulate in his account from doing the bare minimum. You get out what you put in.
I’m a big fan of the site and some reviews are great but in my opinion your taking on any old trialist lately and obviously there not up to the task. Maybe you should do this one Lucy 🙂
Thanks for those comments; you’re making me feel better already. 🙂
Presumably driving instructors have to be tested too but I suspect it all ends up being more subjective, and qualitative rather than quantitative (though there would also appear to be an infinite-loop style problem with the process: viz., who examines the instructor’s examiner? And who examines that examiner!? ad infinitum…).
I have just allocated the password to two more folks who asked for it and will continue to issue to any existing customer who’d like to get involved. To date however, everyone who was chatty in public is now silent in private!
I have decided, exceptionally, to close down this incomplete trial.
I say this without any pleasure at all. However, I have got through two triallists so far and just can’t bring myself to locate a third.
No. 2 Triallist John’s closing email to me read as follows:
This method requires you to be in front of the computer throughout the length of the game.
You ensure the criteria is met prior to placing the trade. Hopefully the trade is successful, but if not you are provided with a spread sheet of “what if’s”. This is where you need to place recovery trades to even out the pending losses.
Placing lay bets at very high odds can be very daunting, so a lot of monitoring is required to ensure you are watching the game correctly.
High losses are possible if the game doesn’t go in your favour and you get it wrong.
The ASP system is something I’m not really happy with because nothing is cast in stone. It’s all down to how an individual reads the match and how it is unfolding.
Hope this helps.
Reading these comments, one might conclude that the product holds limited appeal.
On the other hand, there has been a constant stream of existing users willing to discuss the product, so clearly these people have started using it and think it’s worth exploring.
It’s also clear from what we’ve learned that the product comes with a mountain of explanatory material and video. This is an old chestnut of a system that has apparently got a lot to offer.
For some reason however, it also seems to be beyond testing. The possibility of significant in-play liabilities worries some and the subjective element may discourage others. But there are many fans.
I am therefore awarding a Neutral rating and closing the trial. We had an honest go and developed some views. I guess that’s something.
You can read more about Assured Soccer Profits here.
I think that’s for the best, really. It’s not a product that you can trial, per se – sort of like trialling a driving instructor. If you can’t drive, it will be useless to you, no matter how good the instructor.
I stand by what was said here, it’s the Marmite of the trading world. Love it, or hate it, it’s definitely worth the money. Even the sales blurb lays it out well. This is no get rich quick scheme. It’s one of the most honest trading system/strategies I’ve come across. I have 1000’s of these things on my PC, so that’s saying something.
If you have purchased and feel differently, we can continue this on the passworded page, which seems very quiet all things considering 🙂
Assured Soccer Profits – Trial Update #1
This is my opening review of ASP and what a system you receive when you sign up.
Lucy has been requesting this review for a while now, and to fully understand what this entails takes a long time.
Without giving too much of the system away, it is based primarily on trading two markets on the exchanges.
This involves laying pre kick off and trading out for a profit later during in play, or leaving the trades to run until completion of the game to achieve greater profits.
To get started with the system, five videos are available to watch. They range from basic explanations of what the exchanges are and how they operate through to match selection, which is a critical part of the trading method.
John, who is the system creator, clearly demonstrates the importance of correct match selection. Watching these videos is crucial to understanding how the system works and demands concentration to ensure you know what you’re doing.
Unfortunately, the game of football doesn’t always run as we would like it… in this case, we are worried about matches with no goals. To cover this event, a “What If” spread sheet is included in the Method Modules section. All in all there are twelve different modules to work your way through to begin to understand what to do if things do go against your initial pre kick off trades. There are also seven video tutorials covering different strategies, which again takes time to digest and understand.
Every game pans out differently, so it’s important to check the selection criteria have been met before you start. Finding a perfect match can be tricky, even with all the various strategies, and certain deviations can be allowed. All this is covered in the Videos and Tutorials section.
In my trading, I am used to placing lay bets on the horses at very short odds… 1.5 – 2.0 ish. This system places lay bets at far greater odds than that. So, as you can imagine, beginning to accept odds at far higher a price is quite alien to me at the moment.
This system is much better to implement and follow if you are interested in football. The strategies used are not new, they have been around for a good while now. But the point is, you’re trading in-play so there is a time commitment. Your aim is to react to events and trade out to an ‘all-green’ position (i.e. both positions profitable).
As an extra to Assured Soccer Profits, I have been contacted by John to join the Skype support group where information will be shared on the day’s games and potential up and trades. This is something I will be taking up shortly.
So to pull this first report to an end without me rambling on for ages… This looks like a method to use on football matches played throughout the world at all times of the day. If the criteria match then trades can be placed and profits banked.
One thing to bring to light is somewhere I have read that it is possible to make one per cent of the betting bank per day… Now over a full year of trading, that is some serious money and if a decent betting bank is in place well worth serious consideration.
Next review will include some trades undertaken to show advancement with this method.
Watch this space…
The problem with these strategies – and the reason I think a trial would be difficult to manage – is that they will operate very differently in different hands. Even just sticking strictly to the basic ASP system, as is outlined, 2 different traders will get very different results. I found ASP profitable, but I didn’t stick to the basic system but I also didn’t go all out as happens in the videos in the members area. I’ve adapted it to suit my risk/reward preferences, so much so now it isn’t ASP I’m applying.
Goal Profits is a next step version of ASP, but some will find it too advanced to jump in with it straight away. Both strategies (of which there are many at GP) compliment each other very well. I’m not surprised they advertise between each other and I have no problem with that as I have purchased/subscribed to both. I know a lot of GP members that also use ASP. I also know a lot that say ASP isn’t profitable for them. (Sort of proving my point)
Just because you can’t make a strategy profitable for you, doesn’t mean it isn’t profitable or that others won’t profit from it. You just have to find something that works for you, in the long run. Hearing someone trading ASP for a few months and stopping because it wasn’t profitable is a worry to me – you need a good 6 months+ with any strategy and a good few hundred matches traded before deciding if it’s profitable. If you are losing too much, or your bank is reducing too quickly, then you need to reduce your stakes – if you can stake £1 and return £1.10 on a match and repeat that trend over 200 matches, you might be thinking about increasing stakes. This is what both ASP and GP has taught me – control the red, first, the greens will come. Whether the greens offset the reds, in the long run, is another matter.
If trading was easy and profitable for everyone, no one would be going to work on Monday morning next week.
For ASP, I think a trading thread on LBAGR would be very useful.
Sue i would just like to say without being too blunt.. If you have been on so many games that have gone straight to 4-0 to the favourite you Are quite clearly having the wrong game selection. Myself I have only have one game like this (Southampton v villa) fastest hat-trick in the premier league lol
The Skype group is going well with over 30 members. From experienced to new ASP users. Just a place to discuss games and help eachother. There’s no such thing as a silly question in this group. Still.. Looking forward to the trial. How long has the trialist been at it?
Thanks for the comments Jim – you may well be right, I am not knowledgeable about football and go purely on stats. I’m leaving ASP alone for now but do intend to come back to it as I was doing reasonably well until I had a series of losers which wiped out my profits – plus 🙁 . I would still maintain though that it’s not necessarily the number of goals scored (lots sometimes worked in my favour) but the frequency at which they arrive and it was the latter that caused my losses more than anything else.
Lucy – I’d love it if enough people were interested and an ASP traders page was set up here as I don’t have Skype and don’t use Facebook, but would I be allowed to join as I bought ASG just before it was trialled – so not via your site?
Andrew – I learnt about ASP from when I was with VFB, the offshoot from Goal Profits, and you’re right – it was constantly being promoted.
@Sue – avoid summer league bets I’d say, I heard that 4 goals is a more likely outcome with them so it’s not the same as doing asp on the european leagues.
That’s an interesting suggestions of yours Lucy, and kind. Let’s see what Joe says as he has already got ahead with setting up a group and if so, guess that could be the route to follow. If ASP nearly won an award at LayBack (…this is why I signed up in the first place), having been popular…and it’s something on sale via a link at LayBackandGetRich…then would you have a list of ASP users? It would be great if there was a way of alerting them to the chat group. I bet (ha ha) it could be useful to quite a few.
At the risk of using this comments section for the wrong thing…@ChrisR, I’m still intending to drop you an e, to compare thoughts on ASP… it will be sometime in the next week or so. Jim
Sue, I think the problem is what Chris R has commented on – he doesn’t trade on the last 10% of games in the season. The problem is that teams with less incentive to play properly at this point in the season don’t…so you get 4 goal deficits where a lesser margin would previously be expected…the giveaway to this is that AU odds for these games tends to be lower than they normally would be before the game, but unless you know about the end-of-season problem, you’d go ahead and apply the usual ASP approach. Have to say that I think it is an omission in the ASP material not to alert people of this issue…for all the detail elsewhere in the ASP material it cd be (very) expensive for ppl who don’t know about it. I note that Chris R says he is not using ASP now, maybe that discussion group would be useful.
Joe – Many of my 4+ goal games have occurred with goals going in very closely so that there has been little time to get trades in. Where the goals have been spaced out losses have been minimal – or I have managed to come out with a profit, especially when both sides are scoring. Several of mine have been totally one-sided. I think it’s not the number of goals but how close together they come that, for me, has been so difficult, particularly when the favourite is doing all the scoring.
Lucy – I’m taking a break from this for a little while. Concentrating on Football Bank Builder – and, after one week, one of the few systems I’ve tried actually showing a profit 🙂 – and other stuff. Good luck with finding a candidate!
I have made a profit from ASP, but I can see how the system is very inconsistent – especially if over traded and every qualifier is traded, so maybe I’ve been lucky and avoided the run of losses. I have had losses, but long term, it has been profitable for me.
I tend not to use it now, or I add in my own tweaks which reduce the risks. I prefer to back to lay higher scorelines, maybe using AU as cover, or I will scalp back/lay lower scorelines to offer some insurance. So, I’m not technically using ASP, which is a lot more simple, but that is how I’ve reduced the risk. Without ASP kicking off the process, I couldn’t have come this far with CS trading. The education it gives is worth the price for it.
I use the ASG recommendations where i can if I think the odds are acceptable and the stata seem OK and also wherever I can find a game to fit the criteria – sometimes it’s hard work finding any with the required liquidity – so I have traded leagues all over the world and have had problems with the Scandinavian leagues as well as Winter leagues. Japan was fairly good for me until the last one went to 4-0 by HT.
The craziest one I’ve had lately has to be Southampton last week – 5 – 1 at HT. Where did that come from??
Good Afternoon Sue, Hope you are well.
You certainly need a knack for C.
I have tried to stick with ASP, but it is very hit and miss.
As I mentioned a while ago, I think two people can be trading
the same game with totally different outcomes with this…
Enjoy Your Day.
Kindest Regards Slim.
I completely get that two people can trade the same game with totally different results. I think my major headache with the system is when goals come close together – that is worse for me than the 4+ goals game. I’m even getting quite blase in games where I find myself in a loss position with no apparent (to me anyway) way out – and that’s quite scary in itself!
Everything I read though comes back to the fact that trading is where people can make consistent money in the long term in the betting industry – cutting out the bookies. But how to get the knack without going bankrupt first!
I think Chris seems to have it right – backing to lay without the high liabilities. I just have to find a system of that nature whether it’s on CS or Under/Overs or whatever which I can take gently to build up confidence and knowledge.
Thanks for your response and hope you enjoy your day too 🙂
I have had very much the same experience as you Sue. I have been ultra-conservative with my match selection & still managed to get a ridiculous number of games with 4+ goals.
The most irritating are the goals coming in clusters or 4 goals coming in the second half.
I wiped out my bank & decided to give it a rest for a while, I will follow the review with interest.
Thanks for responding Lee – I’m feeling much better about this now – misery loves company 😉
It is bizarre how the number of teams that are consistently low scorers suddenly start firing off goals left right and centre once selected. How do they know??
I’m actually thinking of purchasing Football Bank Builder at the moment. It would be nice to have something that will bring in a reliable if low profit – which it seems to from the review. It’ll help fund my struggles with learning to trade hopefully!
Which leagues are you trading to get results like that? I avoid the first 10% and the last 10% of games in all leagues, that way you avoid the initial setting in to their stride and the last run up to promotion/relegation and games that have no incentive for middle table teams. I haven’t traded any major European leagues since mid-April (much sooner for teams with poor stat records) and I won’t touch them again until mid-September. Ideally, I want to see at least 5/6 games at home or away for each fixture.
There are plenty of fixtures in the Summer leagues – Sweden, Norway, Finland, etc. Although there are fewer fixtures to choose from, admittedly.
If I have to trade European leagues, I use half stakes or less.
It isn’t possible to miss 4 goal games, but it is possible to dodge some of them when form isn’t in place or the incentive to win for some reason isn’t there.
Thanks for your response Chris. I have considered leaving out the first lay and just going for the others but find the liabilities with no back out a bit scary – but at the moment, with my experience to date, that may be the way to go.
I have had some good profits on high scoring games – but not when the goals come only from the faves and all at once. One game was 3 – 0 at 10 minutes!
If I could build up some profit then I would start experimenting more and selecting games with the potential of lots of goals rather than few which I feel could be much more profitable.
I shall press on with the system meanwhile and look forward to the first report. It’s mean but I almost hope they will have a rough time in their first month as it will make me feel better 😉
Thing is, if you leave the original lays out (either end of the market) then that isn’t the ASP system you’re trading – one lay cancels another, as both can’t happen, and as you say you’re using one to leverage a break even position elsewhere if nothing happens.
You could look to use some insurance in the Half Time CS market to combat early goals – that market covers 3 goals to either team with a back of HTCS Any Unquoted, for example. That would reduce your break even position if nothing happens to a small red, though. I doubt you could cover your whole liability in the CS market with the HTCS market, though. One market drives another, effectively, and you simply can’t cover all score lines.
Could you also use the CS2 markets? If you’re laying only one team in the CS AU market (home) you could back that same team to win at 4 goals or beyond in CS2.
There’s so many possible angles, but I still feel that insurance is expensive and unless you can profit long term without it, employing it is going to reduce what small profit you have over 100’s of matches.
It’s a dilemma whether to stick with ASP, IMHO. I tend to prefer other CS systems/strategies – there are others that use backs to lay, rather than lay to back, and it makes for a more healthy heart to have goals move you towards profit, than it does for goals to move you towards liabilities.
From Lucy’s comments, I don’t think there is a trial underway. Lucy is looking for someone to pick up the gauntlet, I couldn’t do this one as I can’t trade a decent enough number of selections to cover the trial.
The CS2 market has been brilliant for me on 3 occasions and 1 not as after 4 goals in 30 mins there were no more! The other times much reduced liability and once into a profit. Also I have layed other scorelines to reduce the overall liability.
I haven’t looked at the HT market but will consider that.
More importantly – can you recommend the CS strategies you use or point me in the right direction? Each time I lay the CS there’s a part of me thinking that I should be backing to lay. Ages ago, as an experiment, I selected a match where the odds and stats showed the expected outcome to be 2-1 or 1-2 but the market didn’t react at all the way I expected when a goal went in and it put me off.
I’m not fond of insurance – especially as I used it once and it was the wrong way around! Luckily, by shovelling money on the opposite, I managed to get myself out of trouble and made a small profit – but I was lucky that time!
Really appreciate your help and advice. I think it’s a great shame that there isn’t a chat room on ASP
And – just traded another game gone to 4 goals. 🙁 . Another loss. The only consolation I can think of is that my losses are smaller these days – but far too frequent.
I don’t like giving up on stuff but am feeling I’m going to have to with this – it’s getting very expensive and I don’t seem to have the knack for
a) selecting the right games and
b) for getting the right lays on at the right times and
c) wriggling out of trouble
I shall probably give it another week or so but perhaps there is a particular type of brain that this works with and I just don’t have it. Perhaps I’ve just been unlucky.
I’ve used loads of different strategies and methods, including Goal Profits and Ultimate Correct Score Betting from Kickoff Profits, for example – I now tend to do my own research on stats and use that to apply my own approaches, a combination of all those I’ve used.
I’ve had the opposite problem, with backing to lay. I find it difficult to green the screen up when the profit comes in. When I was paying for Goal Profits, for example, I was able to match Steve Brown’s losses, but I couldn’t get anywhere near his profits – which is key to making profit long term.
Using my own approach means I can achieve a balance between greens on scores I consider value and will happen, against a trading approach I apply in play, and then a plan to take the green at certain points in the game.
All these systems are good value for experience to learn how to use the market, but I don’t think you can truly master the market until you’ve gained that experience yourself and made your own mistakes then have a plan to address “your” own approach.
From your response it does seem very much trial and error until you find your own system that you’re comfortable with.
Perhaps ASG is the way to go for now until I get a better feel for the markets. I really don’t want to shell out for another system as yet.
I know there’s free stuff on the web as well that I have glanced at previously – perhaps I need to take a more in depth look at these to help me along.
Many thanks for the advice Chris, much appreciated and helpful.
Aargh – this system is driving me crazy. Every time I start building a little profit I get wiped out – again and again and again.
Despite keeping to the parameters and doing statistical research my strike rate for 4+ goals is almost 15% – teams that haven’t scored more than 3 goals in any match for the past two – three years or more burst into hyper action as soon as I’ve placed my initial bet – and as often as not within the first few minutes. I’ve had two today.
Goals come in clusters of two or three so that the appropriate bets aren’t placed in time. I have reread the manual, rewatched the video’s but seem to be going nowhere fast.
My initial bet has been getting smaller and smaller – which leaves me with smaller losses but also smaller profits when everything does go as hoped.
Are there any other newbies to this system out there having the same problems – or is it just me?.
I’d say that’s a very usual experience, Sue – I don’t think you’re doing anything wrong, as the way the system is laid out you are getting what appears to be common results. The videos go in to much more detail, where the author takes a lot more risk than is shown in the manuals/blog posts, which is where most of the profits seem to have come from.
I’ve been lucky with ASP, as I find it profitable, but I don’t think you can “leave” the bets/trades as suggested and watch the profits come in. I tend to trade throughout the match, moving profit from place to place, depending on what is going on within the match. Having said all that, the unexpected still catches me out, I just happen to have more profit than losses, over time. I don’t trade every qualifying selection, though. Maybe I’ve been lucky on missing the matches which go wrong. The luck will catch up with me at some point!
What ASP is good at is showing you how the Correct Score market works and once you understand that, you’ll probably leave ASP behind because of the profit/loss ratio being so small when compared to the risk involved? I certainly did, but I still use ASP now and again when I have spare time or see a decent selection on offer.
I’d love to join a group for mutual support and help. I started about a month or two ago and my profit/loss has been all over the place – but I haven’t text as you named it a whatsapp group – which I assume it’s to be via an app which i know nothing about having computer internet access only. Is this the case?
It’s a shame that ASP don’t have a members chat room.
I started with ASG shortly before the trial began – and have only just discovered it here!
It will be an interesting trial – if it gets going! -and not sure how it will be judged as (and presumably this goes with any trading product) everyone is liable to take different actions and as such, everyone will have different results.
In my trading to date I seem to be developing a special talent for selecting games where the favourite scores 4 goals or more, two of them at 4 – 0 by half time. And yes, both within the parameters and stats checked and looking good. I think I need to inform Blue Moon Tips on what my selections are each day!!
Thank you for sharing your thoughts Chris R and Jim. A very interesting read – particularly for someone like me who already has ASP.
I haven’t done any trades yet, but do feel very comfortable that I have grasped the concepts. Certainly the excellent training material makes this easy IMO. However, I have been reticent to trade because I’m not really sure what to do ‘when things go wrong’ and this is the area that I need to study.
It is no secret that Steve of Goal Profits is a great fan of ASP, and, as has already been mentioned, GP do provide stats for ASP. That for me is enough of a recommendation!
Best of luck with the trial Ian. I will be following it with interest.
Hi Chris, Yes, I agree with what you say about ‘insurance’ – it reduces the profits or losses and the risk/reward ratio moves. Also, I agree about match selection, this is the pivot on which the whole system moves…but (again) I agree about how even 200 matches may not necessarily indicating how profitable or otherwise the strategy is. You could just be on a long run of good match choices, where there aren’t that many unwanted results you can’t get out of. It could be that in the next 20 games, there is a group of unwanted results in there that you couldn’t trade out of well, or at all, knocking out the previously accumulated profit. However…you say you personally have made profits by the method and it sounds like you’re confident of doing this, over time? it sounds like you can definitely make it pay? (and you’re not putting in a whole load of time to reap such rewards). If so, I take it that is a confirmation from outside the company that the system does work if you apply yourself…
Hi Chris R – and thanks. I’ll ask Lucy for your email address then. You’re right – the videos offer a modified approach to what the manuals advise. What I notice is that the ‘problem’ scenarios that can occur in the first half – like ‘early’ goals, or one side scoring two goals and the like (- when for success, the approach really needs only one goal to be scored by one team, after 15 mins in the first half, allowing one to trade out with a profit by half-time)….these problem scenarios are given subtley different advised ‘solution’ approaches in the videos. Being still a bit new to ASP, I do wonder if the ‘problem’ scenarios that will sometimes occur can really be handled adequately. What if they occur a bit more often than you’d like (creating more losses than you were expecting, in among all the wins…removing profit)? or if the loss made is a bit higher than you’d like? It is in these subtle areas that a seemingly profitable system can become loss-making. However, you say it is working for you. I look forward to liaising! Jim
It’s certainly the case that balancing profit and losses outweighing them are key with ASP – I’ve looked at using other markets, as Geoff mentions in some of the videos, as “insurance” and haven’t found a solution. I hate insurance, as it is often far too expensive for the benefit and that equally applies here. If you are to use an insurance bet, then be prepared for profits to be reduced as well as losses and for that risk/reward ratio to move also. I think my profits from ASP have came from a combination of not trading every selection, as I simply can’t be at the computer for hours on end during the day (as I mentioned, I want to look to automate some of it, which removes this difficulty) and avoiding the “wrong” matches. That latter point is really difficult, as football is a funny old game and anything can happen, regardless of what the stats say or your own analysis – any team is capable of scoring goals, either way, which can put you in trouble. Having the right mix of wins/losses, over time, seems difficult to achieve.
I’m hoping Ian comes back with some detail of how the trial will be run, because, as I say, even 200 matches with this method could not be indicative of how profitable, or otherwise, the strategy is.
Hi Chris R
I’ve been using ASP for a while now – though a lot less than you at 2 years. I would be interested to liaise by email over a few points; I’ve been looking to find some fellow users of ASP to compare notes.
You say that you need to follow the system by the book to make profits. I notice that in a few areas, basically the manual says to adopt one approach; and then the videos that go over these areas offer a more subtle course of action. There are a few ambiguities about what to do when games don’t go the way you want – and indeed, trading out in the right way seems essential to not losing the profit accumulated on other games. You’re saying that it is possible to master that though…?
Something else I find is the time invested/profit trade-off is not so good. Apart from time trading on games (which quite often seems to go in to the second half), the match selection seems to involve investigating quite a lot of games to find the ones to do; and given the number of scrach trades the money made isn’t much. By your stats above, if you spent like a 4 hr session to do 10 games, 7 wd be scratches and 3 wd make a small profit (unless your stake was bigger…). And a loss when it comes occasionally will knock down the profit made. The time investment is a bit of a worry.
If you felt ok about putting your email here (some do on this site I believe) we might liaise…
Hi Jim. I’m happy to talk over email, I’m sure I shouldn’t post my address here, but Lucy can see it and I’m happy for her to provide it to you, or your email to me, so we can contact that way. Might be an idea for you to email Lucy and ask her for it, as I know she is on holiday and might not be so “active”, so to speak.
I also think it’s a useful discussion to have on the thread, though, as I see match selection and trading strategy when things go wrong as the key to ASP.
Match selection goes without saying, any trading strategy is capable of make profit long term IF the correct matches are traded – all too often, I’ve seen trading strategies fail because the selection method was wrong. In fact, some very well respected trading services I’ve used have failed to make a profit for me – some might say that is my fault, which is fine, and I understand the risks I take before getting involved. Other services I’ve followed have made small profits, some as you say so small they are hardly worth doing. (Although I stand by making 1% – or even less – of a given bank per day/match/period, so I’m very happy to take a lot of small profits with the occasional loss)
This is why I asked the question above about how matches will be selected for the trial. Getting 200 matches “under the belt” isn’t difficult with this, it would be possible to do that within 4-6 weeks, (even during the Summer) depending on how strict you are with odds/match filters. The manuals are very strict, but the videos in the members area relaxes that a lot – my view is, if you stick to the manuals, you will make a profit, but it will be small profits over a lot of matches that don’t always appear every day. The premise being “you can use ASP to trade ANY football match”, but just using ANY match will carry with it a higher risk/reward ratio with it – perhaps so high, that sticking to the set odds filters is the best approach? (Which is probably why they are recommended for “newbies” to this type of trading!)
The manuals talk loosely about what to do in certain situations – and there aren’t that many that would result in a loss. I see the importance being on understanding your own risk/reward ratio and using that to control your losses – for example, if you are losing on 5% of trades, but you’re risking 10% or more of your liability on each trade, you’re doomed to failure. The only solution is to reduce lay stakes, which inevitably reduces profits, or having a different selection/trading method to deal with those risks when they happen. This market is extremely accurate and tight! My results suggest that getting out at half time, even if that means a red screen, is the best approach based on how I trade it. I can get out of the majority of those “wrong” matches at HT with a loss equivalent to around 4-5x the profit on “right” trades – getting the correct split of wrong/right matches is what gives it the long term profits. Based on my long term results, that makes profit and reduces the risk, but it does it without putting the bank under extra pressure by continuing to trade in the the second half.
There are also some subtle changes in the Betfair market – recent changes to the CS market have had an impact on how this can be traded. This part is still a work in progress, as it isn’t long since the market changed. I don’t think I can share more, here, as it would give too much of the method away.
So, I think this is a great introduction to trading of the Correct Score market, but anyone expecting solely to use this as defined and laid out in the simple trading plan provided and to expect it to create a second or replacement income is probably going to be sorely disappointed. But, if you see this as really cheap coaching on how to trade, so you can develop your own approach to it, you’ll be very happy with it.
On your point about time involved, I don’t really understand that. I am using software to submit bets, pre-match and in play. I’m also looking at using some software to cancel unmatched bets and place them again at set intervals during the match, as required by the method. I usually spend 15 mins, max, setting this up per match. The rest is automated unless certain conditions are met, or half time arrives with a profit. I’m sure there are better ways to automate most of the trading decisions needing to be made, but I’m having to learn Excel, Visual Basic, Betfair API and third party trading software to be able to do it. I’m not too techie, so this is taking me some time. I can see how doing it manually would take longer. If more goals are scored than are comfortable, I do have to pick that up and deal with it manually in the to the second half though. Ideally, I’d like to be able to automate the rest, up to that point, which would leave me to focus on the small number of matches that are potential losers at HT, if need be.
It seems to be the Marmite of the trading World – you either love it or hate it!
Good Afternoon Chris R, Hope you are well.
Great post, I am still at the learning stage, and have only been looking
at the games provided by ASP through GP on the website.
My education is probably going to really begin when a trade starts to go wrong.
I’m relatively new to all things trading, so this looks like being quite a learning
curve, it will be very interesting to see how this review goes, because it isn’t
just a case of doing as you are told, and there are “decisions” to be made.
From what I have seen so far, the same game can have completely different
outcomes profit wise, depending on those decisions, and your experience in
using what you are learning, or have learned along the way.
If you have any more tips Chris R, please let me know…
Kindest Regards Slim.
Beware the games listed on the members area are only those meeting some specified filters – personally, I tend to trade them when I can, (I intend on making more free time to trade more often very soon) but you need to check the filters pre-match and possibly league results of each team on top of that, before diving in. I ignore head to head results, as a teams performance 5 years ago is very different to what it is today.
In theory, you can trade any match, but some matches will carry more “risk” (if we can call it that) than others. Only time will teach you how to trade losers, I’d certainly suggest watching the videos on the members area over and over again – especially the ones that are titled “too many goals” or “expect the unexpected”, etc.
To be honest, anyone can make a profit with this if they follow it correctly. What will determine if you keep that profit when you come across a loser, or lose everything you’ve accumulated to date and then some, will be how you deal with the “losing” trades. I work on aiming for a 50% profit on winners, with a 100-150% loss on any losers. You’ll see from my figures above, I’m losing about 2-5% long term, so 50% profit on 95% to 97% is very comfortable for me. You can play it more aggressively.
Just looking at my last 70 results, I’ve had 2 losers costing me 107% of the stake – more than made up for by the 23 games where I’ve took 50% profit. The remaining 45 games were scratch for me, following the system when it tells me to get out. So, 64% of games played were scratch or very near scratch as I like to take some green profit when possible, even if that is 5% here and there.
The keys to the kingdom are match selection and filters, then your trading approach in play when things go wrong. Had I not “traded” out of those losers, they would have cost a lot more – in fact all my profit on those 2 matches. So you can see how important the trade out is, when you have to do take it.
It can be frustrating entering trades and having to back out of them for scratch at half time, it can also be annoying when they go against you and you want to “over trade” them based on your gut feel. I’ve had to leave all that at the door when submitting my lays, though. One of the reasons it has took me 2 years, as I’m a gambler by nature and letting go of that is really hard. When I use ASP, I just “trade by the numbers”, and follow the plan in the book/videos, though.
If you deviate from the plan, you probably will lose, but then that won’t be you following ASP to the letter, so if you can’t follow a strict and disciplined plan, this probably won’t be for you. If you want to do that, but can overcome the itch to get involved in a different way, it will work for you, I have no doubts about it.
Excellent post. Which reminds me – I must renew my driving licence!
Good luck with this trial, I use ASP daily and make a good regular profit with it – and I have done for a number of years.
Have you given some thought as to how you will record results? Without giving too much away, there is some “movement” in match filters in the selection method, although the manual mentions strict filters, I found them too restrictive (for my risk/reward appetite…) on selecting matches. I found the number of matches with those filters quite restrictive – and in my opinion you need a good number of matches to achieve a decent return from a small ROI. If you have 3 matches qualify a day, on average, (something very achievable with this) and 1 or more of them are “scratch” trades, that leaves 2 or fewer matches with a smaller ROI depending on how you approach the trading mechanism in the strategy. It’s fine making 5% ROI, but doing that on 1 match per day might be too slow for most. Having said that, a huge number of matches are pretty much “done and dusted” by half time – most only taking 10 mins of activity in the first half. If you can make 1% of your bank a day, the bank would increase 34% per month! This is very achievable with ASP.
Because there’s so much movement in selection and trading method with it, I think it is difficult to review it without giving too much of the game away – maybe using a maximum liability, along with a maximum “traded” liability, (meaning you trade down your maximum to a more acceptable loss, should things “go wrong”) would be useful? I’ve found I get a return, or scratch at least, from 97%+ of my selections and I can easily make 9-10% ROI when considering my maximum traded liability, so this strategy is very safe.
There’s a BUT…
It takes some getting your head around, initially, especially if you are new to exchange trading football – it took me at least 2 years to get those sorts of results consistently, but it is worth it in the end. I don’t consider myself a newbie, but I’m not a pro neither. I think using this daily, as I do, could make me consider turning pro, though. There’s so many selections available, even using the strict “learning” filters in the manual, so maximising a decent ROI over a larger number of matches isn’t totally out of the question.
It isn’t “get rich quick”, but with the right mindset and approach, you could “get rich” over time with the proper approach. I know the site/information says it isn’t “gambling”, which it obviously is, but it worries me that this is sold to gamblers – it is more a trading education, at a bargain price, for the amount of content provided.
As an analogy, I’d compare this to learning to drive. You do the theory. You do the practical learning with an instructor. You pass your test. Its at this point you REALLY start to learn to drive, though. I remember driving on a motorway for the first time after I passed my driving test – my first few matches (and my first few losers) were like that with ASP. I’d say this is more akin to trying to pilot an air plane just because you’ve passed your driving test, and I can see how it could be that dangerous to betting banks in the “wrong” hands – they do recommend a small starting bank, £200-£300 to begin with, so if you have that as disposable income, there probably isn’t a better value way to learn to trade than ASP out there! That £200 could and would most certainly compound over time, once you find your feet with it. The amount available to stake per match isn’t truly unlimited, in theory, but you wouldn’t increase stakes on each match, you’d increase the number of matches you trade. Arguably, you can apply this to any football match, once you’re more experienced with it – it teaches fundamentals of how football markets work, much like FX trading does. I know some very profitable FX traders who would give up a limb to secure 1% per day on a consistent basis!
Thanks, Lucy! Footie-phobe indeed! 🙂
But I do enjoy trading. With a background in trading the markets, particularly forex, I’m keen to see if this is as footie-iognorant-friendly as it claims.
I can’t say more than that at the moment coz I haven’t even unwrapped the manual but give me a few weeks, as it says, and I’ll pop back with First Impressions.
The system has stood the test of time and I’m looking forward to putting my non-footie knowledge to good use! 🙂