My month #1 report on The Omenator painted an exciting picture.
Here was a tool that allowed punters to log into a browser-based service whenever they wanted, in order to locate valuable back-to-lay trades.
The results were remarkable: and for anyone looking for a bookie-based trading service, The Omenator presents a straightforward way of capitalising on price movements.
I then moved on to the other side of The Omenator: exchange-only back-to-lay trading.
A much more mixed message emerged this time. We secured successful trades from just 42% of the opportunities that it suggested – even when focussing on the highest quality, ‘3-star’ selections.
Had I just been unlucky?
And was there even, I started to wonder, an alternative opportunity whereby entering the lay bet in-play might yet deliver exchange-only profits?
Read on to find out….
I remain unconvinced that the Omenator is the right product for exchange-only back-to-lay trading.
I mentioned last time that The Omenator doesn’t present anywhere near as many Betfair opportunities as it does bookmaker trades.
The other side of this is that the opportunities it does come up with are flagged to you at all sorts of odd times: including, very often, early in the morning.
Now usually I would be awake when the trades arrived, but certainly not functioning at my best! So I sense I may have missed quite a few trades by being too slow to enter the market.
Meaning: unless you move fast, the selection has often steamed already – so there is no more value to be had.
Additionally, liquidity is extremely thin at this time of day so there is also a risk that the market might misbehave anyway.
Summary of Results
Amongst the 18 3-star trades that I attempted this time, I found little pattern, with just 8 (i.e. only 44%) producing a Betfair SP that was below the price available when I entered the market.
When you compare that 44% rate with the 42% success rate achieved from the 19 3-star trades in month #2, it’s hard to make a strong case that the Omenator is flagging up large volumes of back-to-lay trades at the exchange.
The use of in-play betting to lay off our back bets — an idea I floated in month #2 – was also inconclusive.
A loss of £10.14 from my 18 back-before-and-lay-inplay trades suggests this approach is by no means a surefire winner.
The complete results log from this final period of testing is here: but you should also check the test data in the monthly updates to appreciate fully the convincing difference between bookmaker back-to-lay performance and its Betfair-based equivalent.
The Omenator remains an extraordinarily powerful tool for locating promising back-to-lay trades at the bookies. For this reason alone, I am awarding it a Pass mark.
By contrast, I do not recommend use of this product at the exchange. Alerts are produced erratically and at inconvenient times, and do not perform anywhere nearly as predictably as they do at the bookmakers.
None of that should detract from the significance of the Omenator’s achievement when used with a bookie account. As my month #1 article reveals, its ability to predict back-to-lay trades here is eerily prescient.
It is also extremely cheap at just £24.99 for 60 days’ access: or £99 for lifetime usage.
The Omenator is available right here. I strongly recommend you take a look.
Update: 20th May 2016
My month #1 report on The Omenator told a very impressive story.
Here was a product that somehow is able to highlight horses whose odds are about to steam (i.e. shorten in price).
It points you at the right bookmaker screens and even grades the opportunities so you can concentrate on the most profitable ones.
And it worked like a charm, allowing me to back at high prices then lay off my risk at lower ones.
For anyone with a decent number of bookie accounts therefore, The Omenator is a product you should strongly consider.
In month #2 however, I wanted to look at the other side of The Omenator… its claimed ability to identify horses whose odds were about to steam at the Betfair exchange.
If the Omenator could do this, there would be a queue down the street of traders whose bookmaker accounts have been closed, willing to learn how to back and lay for profit!
So… did it work?… read on to find out!
Well, yes and no. But I think the answer could yet end up being YES…
The Omenator doesn’t present anywhere near as many Betfair opportunities as it does at the bookmakers.
A rough calculation shows there have been around 300 or so selections for use at the exchange this month: which sounds quite a lot, but is less impressive when you realise:
- The trading alerts can be issued at any time of day or night
- You need to react quickly for them to be of any use.
If you’re asleep or otherwise engaged, or your phone is off the network, the Betfair alerts are of little value.
Moreover, markets are often illiquid in the morning, so even if you’re up and about with your smartphone at the ready, you may struggle to enter a worthwhile trade.
I therefore took the pragmatic view that I would simply enter all the trades I could whenever I could. Which sounded, I thought, a reasonable approach – but yielded some poor early results.
I had another look at the advised selections and realised that they were graded into categories of one, two and three stars, where the higher numbers denoted better quality.
I therefore revised my approach to focus exclusively on three-star tips – and things started looking up.
I completed 25 (very small) trades in all, but six of the first seven were on one or two star selections. So although I lost £5.62 overall, I did make £4.23 after 5% commission, once the 1 and 2 star trades were omitted.
But that’s not the whole story, as we shall see. Not by a very long way…
First though, the complete results log for those 25 trades looks like this:
|Market||Settled date||Profit/loss (GBP)||selection||back price||lay price||comment||final position||star rating|
|Horse Racing / Extr 21st Apr : 2m3f Hcap Chs||21-Apr-16 19:36||-2||lambs cross||4.8||n/a||lay unmatched, didn’t trade out||2||2|
|Horse Racing / Sand 22nd Apr : 1m2f Grp3||22-Apr-16 14:28||0||midterm||1.79||1.79||traded out, no steam||1||2|
|Horse Racing / Perth 22nd Apr : 2m4f Hcap Hrd||22-Apr-16 15:12||-4||baysbrown||4.72||n/a||lay unmatched, didn’t trade out||5||1|
|Horse Racing / Perth 22nd Apr : 2m4f Hcap Hrd||22-Apr-16 15:12||-4||lord landen||4.23||n/a||lay unmatched, didn’t trade out||9||1|
|Horse Racing / Donc 22nd Apr : 2m Hcap||22-Apr-16 15:27||0||golden doyen||3.03||3||traded out, no steam||3||3|
|Horse Racing / Perth 22nd Apr : 2m NHF||22-Apr-16 17:25||0||imperial eloquence||2.96||2.9||traded out, no steam||2||2|
|Horse Racing / Plump 22nd Apr : 2m4f Hcap Hrd||22-Apr-16 17:56||0.15||libeccio||2.98||2.9||traded out, no steam||1||2|
|Horse Racing / Plump 22nd Apr : 2m2f Hcap Hrd||22-Apr-16 19:58||3.36||hermosa vaquera||5.28||4.1||successful trade||1||3|
|Horse Racing / Leic 23rd Apr : 5f Nov Stks||23-Apr-16 14:51||0.57||hyperfocus||3.4||3.2||modest trade||1||3|
|Horse Racing / Ayr 25th Apr : 1m2f Hcap||25-Apr-16 17:29||-2.3||testa rossa||7.12||n/a||lay unmatched, didn’t trade out||2||3|
|Horse Racing / Wolv 26th Apr : 2m Hcap||26-Apr-16 20:15||0.11||zakatal||2.3||2.26||traded out, no steam||1||3|
|Horse Racing / Wolv 27th Apr : 1m4f Hcap||27-Apr-16 16:49||0.25||on a whim||3.19||3.1||traded out, no steam||1||3|
|Horse Racing / Ascot 7th May : 1m4f Listed||07-May-16 15:11||-0.07||oriental fox||4.2||4.3||traded out, no steam||4||3|
|Horse Racing / Thirsk 7th May : 6f Hcap||07-May-16 18:40||0||cheeky angel||7.8||7.8||traded out, no steam||11||3|
|Horse Racing / Warw 7th May : 2m NHF||07-May-16 20:26||1.14||le breuil||4.9||4.5||successful trade||1||3|
|Horse Racing / Ludl 8th May : 2m5f Nov Hrd||08-May-16 16:54||0.34||midnight tour||2.38||2.26||modest trade||1||3|
|Horse Racing / Chep 10th May : 5f Nov Stks||10-May-16 17:28||0||secret coin||4.06||3.85||successful trade||5||3|
|Horse Racing / Chep 10th May : 1m Mdn Stks||10-May-16 18:59||0||zauffaly||2.42||2.42||traded out, no steam||2||3|
|Horse Racing / Sthl 10th May : 2m4f Hcap Hrd||10-May-16 19:12||0||what a laugh||6.98||6||successful trade||PU||3|
|Horse Racing / Bath 11th May : 1m2f Hcap||11-May-16 18:34||0||jive time||2.91||2.92||traded out, no steam||4||3|
|Horse Racing / Newm 12th May : 1m Hcap||12-May-16 20:32||0||midnight macchiato||5.8||5||successful trade||2||3|
|Horse Racing / Hunt 17th May : 3m1f Hcap Hrd||17-May-16 20:08||0||wake your dreams||4.1||3.5||successful trade||2||3|
|Horse Racing / Worc 19th May : 2m7f Hcap Chs||19-May-16 14:49||0.48||brody bleu||3.77||3.6||modest trade||1||3|
|Horse Racing / Worc 19th May : 2m Mdn Hrd||19-May-16 16:30||0.35||deauville dancer||2.7||2.4||successful trade||4||3|
|Horse Racing / Wolv 20th May : 7f Hcap||20-May-16 14:14||0||colour my world||3.9||3.85||traded out, no steam||4||3|
If we exclude the six non-3 star trades, the summary figures improve, though remain pretty unexciting:
However, further analysis shows that of these 19 trades, only one was a genuine failure:
|modestly successful trade||3|
|very successful trade||7|
|lay unmatched, didn’t trade out||1|
|traded out for break-even, no steam||8|
These results suggest it is possible that many of my break-even outcomes resulted from simply not being quick enough on the button.
On a number of occasions, it was clear that the horse in question had steamed in price just before I got to the market: often ending up as a disappointing break-even trade.
Further analysis has however highlighted that many of the steamers subsequently went on to perform extremely well in running.
Could perhaps the system be flagging up potential winners?
In particular, if I had not layed off my 19 three-star trades, I would have banked £10.61 at level £2 stakes.
Even more interestingly, if I had aimed to “dob” my trades — which means to lay off each back bet in play at half the backing odds and twice the backing stake — I would have made £30.04 to £2 stakes!
This is remarkable. Dobbing my 19 three-star trades would have yielded 15 points’ profit: almost 1 point per trade.
You can examine my full results log here – including the dobbing and backing-only outturns.
I concluded my last report by stating simply that “The Omenator is a powerful back-to-lay alert tool when used at the bookies”. It really is an exciting product when used with bookmaker accounts.
But its value at Betfair is still somewhat unclear. There remain question-marks over:
- the number of opportunities it flags up at times I can realistically trade
- the available liquidity at those times
- whether I need lightning reflexes to maximise the opportunity it gives me.
However, I am starting to believe that there is another promising possibility here.
Could perhaps The Omenator highlight valuable back bets – or alternatively, “dobbing” opportunities?
It would be wonderful to think so: therefore this is the area I’ll concentrate on between now and my final report in June.
Meanwhile, you can read more about The Omenator here.
Update: 19th April 2016
The last time I wrote about The Omenator, I complained about the repetitive nature of many betting services…
… And how, if I come across another ex-bookie who’s going to ruin his former employer, I may just burst out screaming.
However, the point behind my whinge was that the Omenator looks different.
And I’ve found it utterly refreshing.
Here is a product that is designed, with a laser-like focus, for just one task.
It flags up back-to-lay trading opportunities as they occur.
I have no idea at all how it works… but boy, is it impressive!
Welcome then to the first monthly report on my new trial of the rather wonderful…. The Omenator!
This is a product that comes in two flavours.
You can either use it at your friendly (?) bookmaker’s website – or at an exchange.
In both cases, you are advised — by slightly differing methods — about a horse that the system believes is going to steam (i.e. its price will drop) very soon.
So you put on your back bet and wait.
Now how long you wait is entirely up to you.
But usually a price move comes pretty quickly.
The idea then is to lay the same selection at lower odds and thereby lock in a profit or secure a risk-free bet.
This month I’ve concentrated on bookie-based trades.
I used very small stakes, as a rule, as I wasn’t sure quite what was going to happen.
But it turns out there was very little for me to worry about.
Take, for instance, this little beauty at Betway on 18th March:
The price steamed quickly at the exchange, allowing me to lock in a lay price of 5.35:
Ruby Wednesday then went on to win, which was particularly satisfactory as I’d gone for level back and lay stakes.
The upshot was a nice profit of £5.30 – though naturally I wished I’d used £20 stakes rather than just £2!
Sometimes I didn’t hold my nerve and traded out too soon.
A trade at Cheltenham was a case in point, where I managed to secure odds of 4.5 on Squouateur…….
…. but I “only” got 4.2 to lay at the exchange.
Minutes later, the big move finally happened, with the price suddenly dropping below 4 and finishing at a Betfair SP of 3.25!
Other times, the market move had clearly happened before I responded, so I elected not to trade.
In this example at Fakenham, Jethro was a ‘three-star’ trade, according to the system: the highest possible alert level.
Meaning this should be a hot trade.
I clicked on the Betway link – only to find that, instead of a price of 11, I was being offered just 8.
A quick look at Betfair’s price movement chart showed I’d been too slow to react:
Usually, the price move comes quickly – so if nothing happens within a few minutes, I now just tend to trade out.
It’s important, I think, not to let your use of the system drift into general trading, where you find yourself staring at the screen, vaguely hoping something happens.
For instance, as I’ve been writing this article, I’ve had a trade running on Tutchec in the 6.35 at Sedgefield.
I got odds of 7 at Sportingbet then watched the exchange odds fall back to around 6.2/6.4 – and just stop.
They’d not moved at all in twenty minutes so I traded out. I locked in a small profit irrespective of the result, but felt there was no more to come.
Well, I was possibly wrong. Because the price just broke under 6…
But a profit is a profit, and I banked one. And I think that’s the mindset you have to have with The Omenator.
Generally, the selections do steam – but not every single time.
The sales website predicts that you should be getting around “60-75% successful trades” though it’s possible this prediction includes both exchange bets and sub-3 star alerts.
In any event, I am achieving a success rate well in excess of this at the bookies. However I am only following three star trades, as there are more than enough of them.
In fact, I don’t think I’ve locked in a single losing bookmaker trade as yet. The biggest disappointments have instead simply been opportunities that I left alone.
Usually, in this case, it was obvious, as with Jethro, that I had not been quick enough to capitalise. But on other occasions there would be a further steam later on – though whether it would be fair to say that The Omenator had “predicted” this second move… well, that’s anyone guess.
Perhaps the most irritating trades were the ones where I had foolishly not logged into my bookie accounts in time.
Take this example at Fakenham where a 3 star trade was offered on a horse called Marshgate Lane at back odds of 13:
Unfortunately, by the time I got logged in, Sportingbet told me I was too late!
The moral is: log into your bookie accounts before you start trading!
The Omenator is a powerful back-to-lay alert tool when used at the bookies.
It is devilishly clever, easy to use and enormous fun. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything quite like it.
It’s entirely your choice whether you lock in free bets or go for level profits.
My personal preference is to wait for a few free bets to come in – but that’s probably because I have a weird interest in steamers. Ultimately though, it’s up to the individual.
In my month #2 report, I will look at use of The Omenator at the exchange… a concept so appealing, I almost daren’t hope it works.
In the meantime, you can find out more about The Omenator here.
Introduction: 17th March 2016
A lot of betting systems start to look and sound remarkably like each other after a while.
And some of the sales pages are even worse.
There are so many supposed ex-bookies trying to strike a blow for the little guy that you do begin to wonder who is taken in by this stuff anymore.
In short, it’s easy to lose heart.
However, every now and again I do come across something truly original.
Welcome to my new trial of the gloriously monikered…. The Omenator!
Honestly, I’m tempted to award it a Pass just for the name. 🙂
But seriously… what, I can hear you asking, is it all about?
Well, it’s an alert system that is intended to highlight potential back-to-lay trades.
Or rather, it’s really two separate alert systems in one package, as the system manual explains:
The main difference between the two is that the email-based Alert Service is for use at the exchange only, whereas the Web Service requires bookmaker accounts too.
In principle however, the two follow the same approach:
- You receive an alert of some kind to tell you that a trade is available.
- You login to your exchange or bookmaker account as appropriate and put on your back bet.
- Following a hoped-for price drop of around six to eight ticks, you lay the same selection and close your trade.
The Web Service is expected to generate quite a lot more trades than the Alert Service.
However the Alert Service could hold great appeal for those punters whose bookie accounts have been limited.
The Omenator manual is quite vague about how the alerts are triggered. Which, I suppose, is not that surprising.
It is however very clear that you do need to move fast when a trade is available. And it includes a lot of advice on how to set up your phone in such a way it lets you know you’ve got mail.
I’ve set up an entirely new email account just for this purpose and am desperately awaiting the first tell-tale bong.
You see, I just love the idea of back-to-lay trading on my smartphone. It could fit so neatly into a busy life.
So yes, I’m excited … but it needs to deliver of course.
I’ll be back in a month or so with my first report.
In the meantime, you can find out more about The Omenator here.
Hi , I wonder if anyone else has had the same thoughts about this service as me ? That is – it’s a great tool , but has nothing whatsoever to do with predicting falls in prices on Betfair ! I came to this as a sad sack who , for my own good presumably , the bookies have decided should rarely be allowed to put on more than fifty pee , so hoped there was a ” Betfair only” angle for me to exploit (in backing and laying to get the odd free bet). I can see it’s a great service for those with multiple working bookies account – I was surprised to see just how often the prices really WERE obtainable .. Then you go back to Betfair and wait for the lower price PREDICTED by the service? Well , people often see what they have been told they will see .. If you go to Betfair FIRST , rather than scrabbling to the bookies to try to grab the price , it appears to me that ALWAYS ,the price has fallen sharply in the last fifteen minutes – entirely before the recomendation is made .It seems to be simple arbitrage ( presumably entirely automated ) . The sharp fall in a price on Betfair triggers a hunt for bookies still offering the “old ” odds , and if your fingers are fast , you lock in a profit ! As far as I can see, from the moment of the recomendation , the odds behave entirely in the manner of randomly picked ones …some steam , some drift , some do very little … If you would like to test this , instead of heading for the bookmakers , go straight to Betfair and back at the best price you can – after all , since they are successfuly predicting drops in price , you will tend to make a profi in the long run ,won’t you ? Not when I tried it . Am I right , or is it really time to book myself into the paranoid ward? So what ? Well , the obsfuscation of what is really happening may be reducing your profits ! The owners of the service suggest waiting ’till fifteen minutes before the off to trade out at the best price , but I suspect the highest profits are to be taken shortly after the “tipoff ” , when sad , bookieless souls have headed to Betfair to back and reduced the price a little more (and you eliminate the possibility of a disastrous drift later ..). My guess is that they suggest waiting in order to support the story that they are predicting the movements.. Which brings me to the email alerts for people like me to utilise on Betfair alone . Has anyone tested these over a period of time ?
In the few days I have monitored them , they too look like random picks ,roughly breaking even , and I wonder if they exist only to keep up the “prediction” myth ..? Would love to hear that it’s different and others peoples’ opinions in general